July 7, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are up 2-3c,
🍞wheat is down 2-3,
🛢️crude oil is up $0.68-$0.69,
💲US Dollar is up 13 points
-The U.S. weather continues to be a mixed bag. The European model is looking drier than the GFS model so the markets are mixed.
-China rumored to have bought 5 cargoes of new crop soybeans from the U.S.
-Ethanol is getting some tax credits through the 45Z program.
-Corn conditions remained unchanged at 67% “good/excellent” while soybean ratings lost 1% from last week and are rated at 64% “good/excellent.”
-The Funds were net buyers of corn and wheat last week while they sold soybeans.
-The Fund position as of last Tuesday is net short 46,209 corn contracts, next long 31,200 soybeans and net short about 69,138 all wheat contracts.
-November soybean futures are trading above all major moving averages while December corn futures remain under the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages yet.
🐂🐻 Look for a mixed trade for Tuesday.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $4.23 1/2 which is 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.51 which is the 50-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.42 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.67 which is the 200-day moving average.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $11.70 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.31 which is the contract high from March 12th.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.67 1/2 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.14 which is the contract high from May 13th.
September Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.37 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $6.50 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn futures had an impressive day yesterday. The market chewed through a lot of data so hard to really say one item had the Funds buying but rather a combination of many items all coming together. The heat looks to set up across the U.S. later this week, but the models are disagreeing on the rains. We continue to hear about the drought over in France and Spain which is hurting their crop. China was in rumored to have bought 5 cargoes of new crop soybeans from the U.S. yesterday but still no word on China buying any corn. Also, it looks like ethanol is going to get some tax credits in the 45Z program and that is helping expand the ethanol crush by 296 million gallons by the end of the year 2027. A combination of all this data helped push corn up 15+ cents. If the weather continues to look hot and dry, the corn market should add some premium but if the heat breaks down or rain increases, this could be a short-lived rally.
The Funds were very active in the soybean complex, pushing soybeans 40+ cents higher on the day. China was rumored to have bought 5 cargoes of new crop soybeans from the U.S. and right now, we just do not have the natural seller, the farmer, really wanting to sell anymore new crop soybeans, especially under $12.00. The U.S. and China will engage in talks later this week and there is a lot of speculation the 2 countries might roll back some of the tariffs. China is looking to make a trade deal with the U.S. that includes ag and ag products. For the second week in a row, China is looking to buy new crop beans from the U.S., living up to their end of the deal of buying at least 25 MMT of new crop soybeans. Other than that, it is July, a bit early to rally soybeans on weather buy one never knows. I feel the market will be a little sensitive to the weather in that if we cool down and bring in more rain, the rally could be short-lived.
Wheat continues to be along for the ride. As corn and soybean prices chop around, the wheat markets look to want to pull back a bit. September Kansas City wheat seems to be struggling with the 100-day moving average here this week. Wheat conditions over in Europe continue to erode but the U.S. still struggling to be competitive on the World front. Wheat will have to be pulled up by corn and soybeans.
