July 7, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 12-13c,
🌱soybeans are down 20-21c,
🍞wheat is down 11-12c,
🛢️crude oil is up 3-4c,
💲US Dollar is up 18-19 points.
-Corn, soybeans and wheat all gapped lower on the night session.
-President Trump did not have any major announcements for Agriculture last Thursday when he spoke in Des Moines, IA. Most traders were expecting some sort of trade deal.
-Weather forecasts look near ideal across the U.S. as corn pollination kicks into gear.
-Extended weather forecasts are trying to talk some heat showing up in late July, but the majority of the corn will be pollinated by then.
-Crop conditions across the U.S. look to be steady to a little better this week. Last week the U.S. corn was rated 73% good/excellent and soybeans were rated 66% good/excellent.
-USDA will release their July Crop Production report on Friday. Will we see them increase the yield on corn from their June estimated of 181 bushels per acre?
🐂🐻Look for a lower trade today as the weather forecast for the next 7 days looks ideal for corn pollination.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $4.00 1/4 which is the low from July 1st. Resistance is at $4.18 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.16 1/2 which is the low from July 1st. Resistance comes in at $4.34 1/4 which is 20-day moving average.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $10.16 3/4 which is the low from July 1st. Resistance is at $10.64 1/4 which is the high from July 3rd.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.13 1/4 which is the low from June 27th. Resistance is at $10.58 1/2 which is the high from July 3rd.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.22 3/4 which is the low from July 1st. Resistance comes in at $5.47 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
July is the month that typically has the most significant impact on the corn crop in the U.S. and right now the weather looks very good. Forecasts for the next 7 days look to bring seasonal temps and decent rain across a lot of the corn belt. The extended maps, at the end of July, are possibly looking to be hot and dry but by then the majority of the corn will be pollinated and under good conditions by then. Corn futures are taking back most of what we gained last week and headed back down to test support at $4.00 on the September contract. USDA will give us their updated Crop Production report this Friday. I think the USDA will leave the yield unchanged and wait to see how July weather plays out before adjusting the corn yield. For now, the weather looks good, and corn futures will be under some pressure.
Soybean futures gapped lower and are giving back over 1/2 of what they gained last week. Most traders were expecting President Trump to announce a trade deal with China while he was speaking in Des Moines, IA last Thursday but there was not new major announcement. Crop ratings this week should be steady, but there are more folks a bit frustrated with the way their soybean crop looks. Ultimately the month of August will determine just how big the U.S. soybean crop will be and that is 3 weeks away. Some extended forecasts are looking for the last week of July to turn hot and dry so we will have to keep a close eye on them forecasts. A sub 52.5 bushel per acre yield will keep U.S. soybean stock very tight. For now, the weather looks great and there is no threat to the U.S. crop.
September Kansas City wheat futures are back down testing support at $5.23 this morning. Winter wheat harvest is wrapping up in Kansas and pushing north. Overall, the crop is pretty good quality, and the yield is holding up. Producers in the southern plains are now wondering what to do with their crop as prices are the lowest since 2021. The big crop should keep a lid on the futures here in the near term.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
July 7, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
July 11, 2025 – USDA Crop Production Report
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