July 3, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 5-6c,
🌱soybeans are up 5-6c,
🍞wheat is up 1-2c,
🛢️crude oil is down 38-39c,
💲US Dollar is up 3-4 points.
-President Trump will be in Des Moines, IA today and many think he will make some sort of announcement pertaining to agriculture. It could be trade details with China or it could be something related to renewable fuels.
-The U.S. does have a trade deal in place with Vietnam. In the details, Vietnam will purchase a minimum of $2.9 billion of ag products.
-Weekly export sales will be out at 7:30 am CDT here this morning. Here are the estimates: corn – 900,000-1,900,000 metric tons, soybeans 300,000-1,000,000 metric tons, wheat 200,000-600,000 metric tons and soybean meal – 100,000-650,000 metric tons.
-The weather looks to continue to bring a few rain chances to the upper Midwest while the rest of the corn-belt warms up a little and is on the drier side.
-Reminder, there will be no markets tomorrow, July 4th, in observance of Independance Day. Have a safe and Happy 4th of July! Trade will resume Sunday night, July 6 at 7:00 pm CDT.
🐂🐻Look for a higher trade today as traders wait for President Trump’s announcement in Iowa.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $4.00 1/4 which is the low from July 1st. Resistance is at $4.20 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.16 1/2 which is the low from July 1st. Resistance comes in at $4.35 1/2 which is 20-day moving average.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $10.16 3/4 which is the low from July 1st. Resistance is at $10.82 1/2 which is the high from June 20th.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.13 1/4 which is the low from June 27th. Resistance is at $10.74 1/4 which is the high from June 20th.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.22 3/4 which is the low from July 1st. Resistance comes in at $5.49 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
September corn futures are back trading above the 20-day moving average. They are back trading between $4.20 and $4.35, which is an area of trade consolidation we were in just 2 weeks ago. Traders will be patiently waiting for President Trumps announcement today. There are definitely rumors going around on what the announcement might be, but the market is expecting something significant with grain as we have seen a nice bounce higher the past 2 days. The weather still looks near perfect, but we are seeing some dryness show up across Illinois. Going into a 3-day weekend, President Trump’s announcement today and a potential for the weather to change, we should see some volatility come Sunday night.
The soybean market still has a lot of weather to get through. The lower soybean acres this past Monday in the Planted Acres report just puts more pressure on the U.S. having ideal weather through August. The forecasts are trending a little drier and warmer. If we were to get a trade deal announced with China, where they are set to buy more soybeans from the U.S., this will put more strain on what a somewhat tight carryout stocks number is already. Even a simple 1 bushel per acres less yield will put U.S. carryout stocks sub 200 million bushels. This suggests to me that the market needs to add in more weather premium into the futures.
The wheat market has been more of a follower this week, like it typically is. Harvest is pushing forward with plenty of bushels to sell. The U.S. Dollar trading below 97 is supportive to all grains but it makes U.S. wheat more competitive on the World market. September Kansas City wheat looks to settle back in its trading range between $5.40 and $5.60.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
July 7, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
July 11, 2025 – USDA Crop Production Report
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