June 30, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are up 1-2c,
🍞wheat is down 1-2c,
🛢️crude oil is down 9-10c,
💲US Dollar is down 17-18 points.
-It is report day. Here are the estimates: Corn acres – 95.35 million, soybeans 83.655 million acres and all wheat 45.438 million acres.
-Grain Stocks are estimated to come in at 4.641 billion bushels of corn, 980 million bushels of soybeans and 836 million bushels of wheat.
-Heavy rain and severe weather ripped across South Dakota and wester Minnesota over the weekend.
-8-15-day forecast is calling for above normal temps and above normal precipitation.
-The U.S. Dollar traded below 97 here this morning.
-Today is First Notice Day for July grain contracts.
🐂🐻All eyes will be focused on the report out at 11:00 a.m. CDT.
Support/Resistance:
September corn – Support on September corn is at $4.02 1/4 which is the low from June 26th. Resistance is at $4.21 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.19 which is the low from June 26th. Resistance comes in at $4.36 3/4 which is 20-day moving average.
August soybeans – Support comes in at $10.22 1/2 which is the low from June 26th. Resistance is at $10.43 3/4 which is the 100-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.17 which is a support/resistance line. Resistance is at $10.33 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
September Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.32 which is the low from June 13th. Resistance comes in at $5.51 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
The trade will focus on the Planted Acreage and the Grain Stocks report here today. On the report, the trade is looking for a slight adjustment higher on corn acres. Some analysts are thinking that the western corn belt got off to an early start and they planted more corn acres. The eastern corn belt fought wet conditions but typically they do not have many prevent plant acres. One surprise we could see is total corn, soybean and wheat acres to be higher due to less prevent plant acres this year. The Grain Stocks number could be the biggest wild card on corn today. Some folks feel the USDA is over stating the feed usage number thus causing corn stocks to come in higher than expected. The June 30th report typically gives us something out of the ordinary and we usually see some big trading ranges.
The U.S. soybean acres are estimated to come in slightly higher than the March Planting Intentions. With the eastern corn belt and the deep south very wet this spring and early summer, we did see some acres get switched over soybeans. However, with the profitability of soybeans this year, I feel those acres will be limited. On the stocks side of things, I don’t look for any surprises there. Our crush has been really good this year but that is not anything new. Exports seem to be running right on track with the USDA’s projection so overall, I don’t think we will see any surprises on the soybean stocks.
The trade is looking for a slight increase in wheat acres from the March Intentions. With the upper plains starting out the year on the dry side and great planting conditions, it would make sense that the Dakotas, northern Minnesota and Montana put in a little more spring wheat. On to the stocks side of things for the wheat market, the trade is not looking for any surprises. The one surprise we could see is a bigger disappearance number due to more wheat getting put into feed rations down south.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
June 30, 2025 – USDA Planted Acreage & Grain Stocks Report
June 30, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
Are you new here? Click here to subscribe and receive the newsletter in your inbox.
