June 25, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are down 2-3c,
🍞wheat is down 1-3c,
🛢️crude oil is up 63-64c,
💲US Dollar is up 23-24 points.
-The ceasefire between Israel and Iran seems to be holding up.
-Rains are moving across eastern Nebraska, central Iowa and South Dakota here this morning. Cooler temps will also stretch across much of the corn belt with the heat holding on in the eastern part of the U.S.
-Yesterday we got a flash sale of 630,000 metric tons of corn to Mexico.
-Overall weather pattern does not look threatening to the U.S. through July 10th and that will put us in the middle of pollination.
-Crude oil is higher today after a $14 drop in 2 days.
-Corn is on a mission to test support at $4.00 on July futures while soybeans are heading back down to the lower end of their trading range.
🐂🐻Look for a lower trade today as the Funds continue to add to their short positions in corn.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.10 which is the low from October 28th on the continuation chart. Resistance is at $4.35 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.10 which is the low from October 28th on the continuation chart. Resistance comes in at $4.39 1/4 which is 20-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $10.32 1/2 which is the low from June 2nd. Resistance is at $10.82 which is the May 14th high.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.33 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.75 3/4 which is the high from February 4th.
July Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.17 3/4 which is the low from June 17th. Resistance comes in at $5.68 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Rain makes grain. The weather forecast looks to bring some good rains across the Dakotas, Minnesota, Nebraska and Iowa here this week and this will carry the crop through the July 4th holiday. Pollination is right around the corner and the forecast does not look real threatening. Funds are more than likely pushing towards 200,000+ contracts short and continue to add. The flash sale of corn to Mexico was the first flash sale we have had in a while and that helped firm up spreads a bit. The one positive I have about corn is the July to December corn spreads seems to be stabilizing and firming up a bit, but the overall trend is still down.
Soybeans are more of a follower in here lately. We are seeing July soybean futures break down below the major moving averages this morning, but we still remain in the sideways trend. Soybean meal is down testing the low from last December and is oversold. Soybean oil futures are following crude oil. After the gap higher early last week, July soybean oil futures started to fill that gap yesterday. Soybean oil is over bought in here and our risk is a gap lower one of these days, leaving us with an island top.
Harvest continues to roll on for the southern wheat plains. There were some good rains across Kansas and Oklahoma again early this week putting a hold on harvest in a few areas but sounds like western Kansas is moving along. Yields continue to be good, and quality isn’t quite as bad as many had thought it might be with the heavy rains Kansas and Oklahoma saw a couple weeks ago. July Kansas City futures broke down below the 20-day moving average with next area of support coming in at $5.17 3/4.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
June 30, 2025 – USDA Planted Acreage & Grain Stocks Report
June 30, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
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