June 24, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 1-2c,
🍞wheat is down 3-6c,
🛢️crude oil is down $1.94-$1.95,
💲US Dollar is down 34-35 points.
-Crude oil is lower this morning as a potential ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
-Corn crop conditions declined by 2% in the good/excellent category. Majority of the western corn belt saw declines in ratings while the central and eastern corn belt saw improvements.
-Soybean crop ratings dropped 1% in the good/excellent from last week.
-Funds were net sellers of corn and buyers of soybeans last week. The Funds are currently short 184,000+ contracts while holding about 59,000+ long soybean positions.
-Weather is still the main driver here and it looks good to keep conditions rated high.
🐂🐻Look for a lower trade today in all 3 grain complexes.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.10 which is the low from October 28th on the continuation chart. Resistance is at $4.38 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.33 3/4 which is the low from June 16th. Resistance comes in at $4.48 1/2 which is 200-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $10.48 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.82 which is the May 14th high.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.34 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.75 3/4 which is the high from February 4th.
July Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.39 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.69 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Traders were looking for crop ratings to remain steady in corn yesterday and we saw a 2% decline. The western corn belt was the area that pulled the crop ratings down. Cool weather is causing the corn crop to fall further behind. States like Iowa and Illinois continue to see their ratings remain historically high. With the crop conditions dropping 2% out of the good/excellent, one would think we could see a little higher market in corn, but weather is the driver, and the forecasts look to bring some good rains to a lot of the corn belt this week. July corn futures broke down through support yesterday and look to be headed to test the $4.00 level. December corn futures continue struggle with the $4.30-$4.35 area. We still have a lot of growing season left but as of now, the weather is looking good, so the path of least resistance is down.
The Funds were net buyers of soybeans last week giving them a net long position of 59,000+ contracts. Conditions this week were unchanged and rated the exact same as 1 year ago too. Soybeans are just buying some time in here until we get closer to late July and August to see what the weather will be in the U.S. Soybeans still remain in a sideways trading channel between $10.35 and $10.82 on the July contract and $10.15 and $10.70 on the November contract. I look for that trend to continue until we get closer to August.
Winter wheat harvest is still well behind average, but we did see a 10% advancement in harvest this past week and with the current weather, we should see another 10-15% advancement in harvest progress this week. Harvest reports are suggesting the yields are holding up really good. July Kansas City wheat broke out to the upside last week for just a few days and are now back in the $5.20 to $5.50 trading range we have spent the majority of the past 3 months trading in.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
June 30, 2025 – USDA Planted Acreage & Grain Stocks Report
June 30, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress Report
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