June 20, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 3-4c,
🍞wheat is down 3-4c,
🛢️crude oil is up 24-25c,
💲US Dollar is down 30-31 points.
-Heat dome is setting up this weekend for the corn belt. We will have humidity with the heat to help the crops, but we should see temps in the 90’s for a few days.
-Drought conditions in Russia are increasing, lending a little support to U.S. grain prices.
-Crop conditions next week should be steady.
-November soybeans are testing our February highs while December corn is stuck trading between $4.34 and $4.50.
-Wheat is pulling back a little as the weather seems to finally be a bit drier for harvest to get rolling. The big question is how much damage has been done to the winter wheat crop.
🐂🐻Look for a mixed trade today.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.27 1/2 which is the low from October 17th. Resistance is at $4.43 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.33 3/4 which is the low from June 16th. Resistance comes in at $4.438 1/2 which is 200-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $10.32 1/2 which is the low from June 2nd. Resistance is at $10.82 which is the May 14th high.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.34 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.75 3/4 which is the high from February 4th.
July Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.39 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.70 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
It was a pretty quiet overnight trading session. Tensions in the Middle East continue and the grain markets will be sensitive to those headlines. The U.S. will get its first dose of heat across much of the corn belt this weekend into next week before cooling back down a bit. Crop conditions should be steady and remain rated pretty high. December corn futures are pushing back up towards $4.50. With the current U.S. and World balance sheet, $4.50 still seems on the cheap side as we still need to go through pollination in the U.S. Look for corn futures to continue to grind sideways. If the weather forecast next week keep the heat around or bring it back, then we could see December corn breakout to the upside.
Soybean futures are quietly breaking out to the upside in the November contract. The new biofuel mandate on RVOs is positive to the soybean complex. November soybean futures are up testing the February 4th highs. World supply of soybeans remains plentiful; however, the U.S. balance sheet remains tight. We will need to have near perfect weather in August to ensure the U.S. grows a large crop.
Winter wheat harvest should finally get rolling here this weekend as the rains come to an end and the temperatures pick up. Harvest progress remains well behind and until we get the combines rolling, it is hard to know how much damage has been done due to lost bushels and lost quality. The U.S. Dollar trading below 99 helps keep the U.S. wheat competitive in the World market.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
June 20, 2025 – Cattle on Feed
June 23, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
Are you new here? Click here to subscribe and receive the newsletter in your inbox.
