June 18, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 1-2c,
🍞wheat is up 3-4c,
🛢️crude oil is down 54-55c,
💲US Dollar is down 19-20 points.
-Reminder, there will be no grain markets tomorrow due to the Juneteenth Holiday. Trade will resume trade Thursday night at 7 pm CT.
-Kansas and Oklahoma are getting hit with more rain and storms causing issues with the winter wheat harvest.
-Weather across the corn belt looks to set up a heat ridge for a good portion of the U.S. next week. Big question is “How long will it last?”
-The corn market continues to put in a carry from July corn to December corn futures.
-The outside markets are pretty quiet here this morning.
-Keep an eye on the weather and tensions between Israel and Iran.
🐂🐻Look for a mixed trade today.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.27 1/2 which is the low from October 17th. Resistance is at $4.43 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.33 3/4 which is the low from June 16th. Resistance comes in at $4.43 which is 20-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $10.32 1/2 which is the low from June 2nd. Resistance is at $10.82 which is the May 14th high.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.34 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.75 3/4 which is the high from February 4th.
July Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.17 3/4 which is the low from June 13th. Resistance comes in at $5.51 which is the high from June 9th.
Where do we go from Here:
July corn futures continue to erode compared to December corn futures. As we get closer to pollination, the market feels comfortable that the U.S. will produce a large corn crop and South America will supply the World corn until we get into harvest here in the U.S. Weather forecasts are starting to put in some hot weather across much of the corn belt. There is still plenty of time to have some “flash droughts” that could affect the corn crop and give us a sub trendline corn yield. The market feels like it wants to add a little risk premium back into the December contract here in the near term.
July soybean futures ran into resistance again up around $10.80. We have tested this area twice now, giving us a double top. November soybeans, on the other hand, took out resistance yesterday and are now looking to test the highs from February 4th. With the recent RVO mandate increasing, the U.S. will need to grow a 52+ bushel per acre soybean crop. Domestically, soybean supply in the U.S. is a bit tight right now and with a yield under 52 bushels per acre or less soybean acres planted, supplies could get very tight.
Winter wheat harvest continues to fall behind this week with more rains hitting Kansas and Oklahoma. The other concern we are watching is the quality of the wheat. There are reports a quite a bit of wheat that is laying on the ground waiting to get combined that will lose quality fast. July Kansas City wheat futures are back testing resistance here in the $5.50 area. Next area of resistance for July Kansas City wheat is $5.70, which is the 100-day moving average.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
June 20, 2025 – Cattle on Feed
June 23, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
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