June 17, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is unchanged to up 1c,
🌱soybeans are unchanged to down 1c,
🍞wheat is down 2(mlps) to up 3c (chi),
🛢️crude oil is up $1.24
💲US Dollar is up 10 points.
-The tension in the Middle East continues to put fear into the energy sector. Headlines yesterday leaned toward Iran willing to negotiate as long as US didn’t assist Israel. Talk of this conflict becoming a larger issue with more involved has the Crude oil, RBOB, Heating oil, and Natural Gas trading higher this morning: Crude up $1.20 $73.00, RBOB up .03 $2.2531, HO up .05 $2.4435, NG up .04 $3.791
-The Federal Reserve’s two-day FOMC meeting begins today, looks like they have assumed a 99.6% probability that rates will remain unchanged. While inflation pressures persist, policymakers are expected to hold off on any rate cuts until later this year—possibly September. Traders currently see about a 23% chance of a rate cut at the July 30 meeting, according to CME FedWatch.
-U.S. corn planting is 97% complete, matching the five-year average, with emergence at 94% and crop conditions rated 72% good-to-excellent up one point from the previous week. Soybean planting reached 93%, just slightly behind the average, while emergence advanced to 84%. However, soybean crop conditions declined by 2 points to 66% good-to-excellent, reflecting some early-season stress despite strong emergence. Overall, corn is showing steady progress and resilience, while soybeans are lagging slightly in condition amid mixed weather and planting pace variability.
-Soybean Oil continued to show appreciation of the EPA’s suggestion to increase their use in the blending rates required by the refiners. Bean oil was limit up for the second consecutive session, taking advantage of the $4.50 expanded limits. They closed at $55.11, highest in 20 months.
***** If you didn’t’ catch JSA President, Brian Burke, in yesterday’s Fundamental Video, make sure to check it out here, https://www.agmarket.app/intel/28181*****
🐂🐻Look for a mixed trade in the grains. A lot of attention will be on the energy sector
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.27 1/2 which is the low from October 17th. Resistance is at $4.50 1/2 which is an old support/resistance line. Watch the 20-day moving average at $4.48 for near term resistance and the 10-day MA for support at j$4.39. Last night’s trading range fit between the 20dma and the 10dma.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.34 1/2 which is the low from May 19th and last week’s low. Resistance comes in at $4.48 1/2 which is 200-day moving average. The corn complex is testing the support lines in most contracts.
July soybeans – Last week’s resistance becomes today’s support at $10.63 and the highs from May become our new resistance level at $10.82
November soybeans – Same story for X, last weeks resistance is now support at $10.40. Resistance will be at May highs $10.65.
July Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.23 which is the low from May 27th. Resistance comes in at $5.50 1/2 which is the high from June 2nd.
Where do we go from Here:
While the corn market is testing the low end of the trading range, the soybeans are tested and broke through the resistance levels on the charts. Thanks to the push from the Bio-Fuel optimism the traders have put into the market last week. NOPA released May crush data on Monday. The US soybean crush increased 1.4% from the prior month and 5% year-over-year, as NOPA members processed 192.8 million bushels in May. The crush was the largest for the month and the eighth largest for any month on record. However, last month’s crush fell short of the average trade estimate of 193.5 million bushels. End-of-month soybean oil stocks in May declined to 1.4 billion pounds, down 10% from the end of April and down 20% from a year earlier. Stocks were the lowest for the month since 2004 and also fell below the average trade estimate of 1.5 billion pounds.
The Wheat market tried to rally Sunday evening but failed and sold off Monday. Ideas of improving US wheat conditions and rummors of Russian forecast weighed on the wheat market. Sovecon raised its new crop wheat forecast by 1.8mmt, to 82.8mmt.
The corn market backing off after testing resistance allowed funds to continue to add to their short position on Monday. The notable factor is how the weakness of the spreads, or the difference between one month compared to the deferred month, is trading at a more than normal carry. This time of year, with weather a potential factor, typically doesn’t allow this type of trade.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
June 17, 2025 – Fed Meeting Begins
June 19, 2025 – Markets are Closed
June 20, 2025 – July Options Expire
June 20, 2025 – Export sales (Due to Thursday Holiday)
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