June 13, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 4-5c,
🌱soybeans are up 3-4c,
🍞wheat is down 6-7c,
🛢️crude oil is down $1.00, $6 off the highs
💲US Dollar is down 24-26 points.
-The volatility in the energy sector continues this morning. Iran’s retaliation to Israel’s attack on their nuclear program has sent crude oil, natural gas and heating oil spiking higher. As of writing, crude oil was off its highs but has already put in a $5 range.
-Gold put in its highest ever close on Friday, closing at $3452.80. The lack of confidence in the US dollar has had Central Banks looking to gold as the safe haven as the US dollar has fallen over 9.5% this year. Gold passed the Euro as the second largest reserve for central banks
-The weekend rains were scattered across the corn belt. Good coverage through MN, WI, SD, OK, IL will be helpful in getting this crop started. Areas of the four corners of IA, NE, MO, and KS was left out of the rain events as well as Northern IL. The forecast for the next 7 days includes 1″ of rain for majority of the Midwest.
-Renewable energy got a boost from the EPA on Friday. Much speculation regarding what this plan would look like and it landed in the middle but higher than the last guess and this sent Soybean oil futures to limit higher moves.
-Managed Money sold over 16,000 contracts of corn last week to bring them back to a net short position over 150k. They were net buyers of a small number of soybeans and over 7000 of wheat.
🐂🐻Look for a mixed trade in the grains. A lot of attention will be on the energy sector
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.27 1/2 which is the low from October 17th. Resistance is at $4.50 1/2 which is an old support/resistance line. Watch the 20-day moving average at $4.48 for near term resistance and the 10-day MA for support at j$4.39. Last night’s trading range fit between the 20dma and the 10dma.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.34 1/2 which is the low from May 19th and last week’s low. Resistance comes in at $4.48 1/2 which is 200-day moving average.
July soybeans – Last week’s resistance becomes today’s support at $10.63 and the highs from May become our new resistance level at $10.82
November soybeans – Same story for X, last weeks resistance is now support at $10.40. Resistance will be at May highs $10.65
July Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.23 which is the low from May 27th. Resistance comes in at $5.50 1/2 which is the high from June 2nd.
Where do we go from Here:
The corn market was very reluctant to follow the exciting news in the Soybean complex last week. The great start to the growing season is keeping a damper on prices. The crop ratings are expected to creep a little higher again this week as good rain fell across portions of the grain belt. Ethanol continues to be very strong, and we got another cut to a tight balance sheet last week. If the conflict in Iran continues watch to see if crude oil prices can drag corn along.
The announcement from the EPA on Friday sent the soybean oil futures to a limit lock situation early in the trading session and remained there through the close. We will see expanded limits across the Soy complex. The plan from the EPA on Friday included total blending requirements would increase to 24.02 billion gallons in 2026 and 24.46 billion gallons in 2027. This is increase from 22.33 billion gallons this year. This is still short nearly a billion gallons that the industry is still suggesting should be mandated.
Wheat country received more rain to slow down harvest over the weekend. Some in SRW country are very concerned over the quality as will producers in HRW if rains continue. The wheat complex has backed off this morning after we saw a very strong trading day on Friday. They hit the 50day moving average and backed off overnight. Look for a weaker trade this week without any trade deals being signed
Upcoming USDA Reports:
June 16, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
June 19, 2025 – Markets are Closed
June 20, 2025 – July Options Expire
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