June 13, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are up 3-4c,
🍞wheat is up 3-5c,
🛢️crude oil is up $5.43-$5.44,
💲US Dollar is up 43-44 points.
-Crude oil is up strong in the overnight session as Israel carried out some strikes against Iran, focusing on their nuclear bomb sites. Reports are Israel took out Iran’s top General staff in their attacks.
-USDA made very few changes in their Crop Production report yesterday. Biggest change was they increased U.S. corn exports and lowered the ending stocks by 50 million bushels.
-Weekly exports for corn, soybeans and wheat were very disappointing this week. Corn, however, is still running strong in which we still could see USDA increase their annual export projection up from their recent adjustment up to 2.65 billion bushels.
-Weather looks to start to warm up and dry out here in the U.S. starting this weekend. How long will the warm/dry pattern last?
-Look for crop ratings on Monday to be steady to a slight increase in the good/excellent category.
🐂🐻Look for a mixed trade today.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.27 1/2 which is the low from October 17th. Resistance is at $4.50 1/2 which is an old support/resistance line.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.34 1/2 which is the low from May 19th. Resistance comes in at $4.48 1/2 which is 200-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $10.32 1/2 which is the low from June 2nd. Resistance is at $10.63 3/4 which is the June 10th high.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.17 which is an old support/resistance line. Resistance is at $10.35 1/4 which is the 20-day moving-day average.
July Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.23 which is the low from May 27th. Resistance comes in at $5.50 1/2 which is the high from June 2nd.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn futures got a little boost last night from the higher crude oil but is currently lower here this morning. USDA increased their export projection by 50 million bushels and lowering the U.S. carryout down to a very tight 1.365-billion-bushel level. However, weather is the key driving factor. Right now, the weather looks really good for U.S corn. We are starting to go into a warm/dry pattern and as we get closer to July and pollination for the U.S. crop, if the warm/dry pattern sticks around, we could see some premium get added back into the futures.
The USDA made no changes in the June Crop Production report. Most traders thought they could make a slight adjustment upward in the Brazilian soybean crop, but they left all of South American production unchanged from last month. Until we see details on a trade deal with a significant country or we get some adverse weather, look for soybeans to continue to grind in here.
Wheat complex saw 1 slight adjustment in the Crop Production report. The USDA increased wheat exports by 25 million bushels for the 2025-26 crop year. A combination of low prices and a U.S. Dollar that hit a 3+ year low yesterday is keeping U.S. wheat prices competitive. Also, tensions in the Middle East could drive a little more export business to the U.S. here in the near term. Harvest is ramping up in the southern wheat plains with yields coming in as expected but there is a little concern over the quality due to the recent big rains.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
June 12, 2025 – USDA Crop Production
June 16, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
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