June 12, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 1-3c,
🍞wheat is up 2-6c,
🛢️crude oil is down $1.05-$1.06,
💲US Dollar is down 57-58 points.
-It is report day. USDA will release its June Crop Production report here at 11:00 am CT.
-The trade is not looking for any changes to the planted acres or yield thus leaving the total production alone. Trade is looking for 26-million-bushel reduction in corn carryout stemming from increased exports. Soybean and what carry outs are expected to see a slight increase.
-The USDA is expected to raise its production estimates for Brazil corn and soybean crops while leaving Argentina mostly unchanged.
-Soybean basis is some areas of the U.S. too a big hit yesterday, adding to the pressure in the July contract.
-Overall, the weather continues to look good for crop development this week across much of the U.S.
🐂🐻Look for a mixed day today with corn and wheat a little higher and soybeans mixed.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.27 1/2 which is the low from October 17th. Resistance is at $4.50 1/2 which is an old support/resistance line.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.34 1/2 which is the low from May 19th. Resistance comes in at $4.48 1/4 which is 200-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $10.47 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.82 which is the May 14th high.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.17 which is an old support/resistance line. Resistance is at $10.35 1/2 which is the 20-day moving-day average.
July Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.23 which is the low from May 27th. Resistance comes in at $5.51 which is the high from June 9th.
Where do we go from Here:
The June USDA Crop Production report will be out this morning. Traders are not expecting any adjustments to the acres or the yield in this report. The one change we could see is the carry out level for corn get lowered yet again, dropping below 1.4 billion bushels. Exports have been running well ahead of pace the past few weeks and most traders are expecting an increase in annual export sales of 25-50 million bushels. Hard to believe we could see a carry out below 1.4 billion bushels in the U.S. and July corn futures are trading below $4.40. The weather will start to warm up and dry out this weekend and into next week. Initially this will be supportive to crop growth. If the warm/dry pattern sticks around and lasts into July, we could see some issues with pollination. Also, in the report today, we could see the USDA increase its estimates for the Brazil corn and soybean crops, causing the World carry out number to increase slightly.
July soybean futures were under a little pressure yesterday, taking some of the inverse out of the market. I did hear of a major soybean processor in central IL widened out their basis significantly yesterday. The Crop Production report today should not contain too many surprises for soybeans. Trade is looking for a slight revision upward of the carry out. The weather in the U.S. is a non-even right now for soybeans. We are seeing July soybeans break down below the major moving averages but still remains in its broader sideways channel they have been in for several weeks.
The July Kansas City wheat futures are down testing support around $5.25 area. Harvest is picking up steam in the southern wheat plains. The USDA Crop Production report should not have any surprises for the wheat complex. Trade is looking for a slight upward revision of the carry out stocks.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
June 12, 2025 – USDA Crop Production
June 16, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
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