May 13, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are up 2-3c,
🍞wheat is up 9-11c,
🛢️crude oil is down $0.90-$0.91,
💲US Dollar is up 23 points
-USDA made some aggressive cuts on the U.S. wheat balance sheet. Lower yield and higher abandonment have the Kansas City wheat futures pushing higher.
-President Trump and President Xi will meet within the next 24-36 hours. Many traders are expecting Ag to be part of their discussions.
-Crude oil futures are lower, but June futures are still trading over $101 per barrel.
-Rains are heading for much of the corn belt this weekend. For many it will be a welcome sight.
-World corn ending stocks for the 26-27 marketing year are at their lowest levels since 2013.
🐂🐻 Look for mixed to higher trade here today.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.76 1/2 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.87 1/2 which is the high from March 9th.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.97 1/2 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.05 3/4 which is the high from May 5th.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $12.09 3/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.50 3/4 which is the high from March 12th.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.88 3/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.12 1/4 which is our high from February 2023.
July Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.96 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $7.46 1/4 which is the high from the week of May 31, 2024.
Where do we go from Here:
USDA gave us a pretty neutral corn report yesterday. We saw the USDA reduce demand for 2026-27 corn by 250 million which in the end gave us an ending stocks of 1.957 billion bushels. This was right in line with trade estimates. Total U.S. corn production is just under 16 billion bushels and will be a key number to watch throughout the year. When we look at the World numbers, I noticed the USDA lowered World ending stocks down to 277.5 MMT vs the current year at 290.5 MMT. Keep in mind, that lower World ending stocks number is factoring the U.S. growing a 16-billion-bushel crop. So, the Funds really don’t have any reason here today to get out of their long position, and this should keep prices well supported.
Some minor changes to the soybean balance sheet kept soybean numbers right in line with trade estimates. We did see the USDA increase demand for the 2026-27 U.S. soybean balance sheet, giving us a projected 310 million carryout while using a 53 bushel per acre yield and a total production of 4.435-billion-bushel crop. When we look at the World ending stocks, they continue to be burdensome, but we are seeing that number get lower. We have a lot of growing season and weather to get through so until the crop gets growing and well ahead of normal, I look soybeans to stay supported to keep up with the corn and wheat markets. Traders are also optimistic we could see China step back into the U.S. market and potentially buy more than the 25 MMT they have already agreed to.
July Kansas City wheat futures are pushing higher again here this morning. The USDA was very aggressive in lowering production estimates for the 2026-27 wheat crop. The Hard Red Winter wheat crop took the biggest hit and rightfully so. The USDA increased their abandonment acres along with lowering yield by 5.8 bushels per acre. The ending stocks for the 2026-27 marketing year are projected to be about 170 million bushels lower than this year in the U.S. and the World ending stocks are also seeing a significant decrease down to 275 MMT. The Funds are aggressively getting long wheat futures.
