May 4, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are up 7-8c,
🍞wheat is down 0-1c,
🛢️crude oil is up $3.88-$3.89,
💲US Dollar is up 24 points
-The planters were rolling hard over the weekend and will be going hard again this week.
-Majority of the heavy rains stayed down in the Delta where planting is pretty much wrapped up.
-Extended weather forecast keep the U.S. a bit on the cool side with some decent rains scheduled in the 7-10 day forecast for the eastern corn belt.
-President Trump has shot down the Iran trade deal they sent over this weekend, so tensions remain elevated.
-Trade reps from bother the U.S. and China continue to lay the groundwork for President Trump and President Xi meeting in 2 weeks. A broader purchase package of agriculture products was discussed last week.
-Look for corn planting to be around 40% complete and soybean about 35% planted in the report this afternoon.
🐂🐻 Look for a higher trade to start out the week.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.71 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.87 1/2 which is the high from March 9th.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.91 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.12 1/4 which is the high from November 2023.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $11.91 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.50 3/4 which is the high from March 12th.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.68 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.99 which is a resistance shelf we have from summer of 2023.
July Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.81 1/2 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $7.18 1/2 which is the high from April 29th.
Where do we go from Here:
The Funds were very active in the corn complex last week, increasing their net long by over 79,000 contracts. The whole inflation trade continues. High fertilizer prices have the market a bit nervous we could see less corn acres in the June planting report along with will farmers put on as much fertilizer? The weather forecasts look to give farmers a decent shot at getting planting done this week so it does look like the bulk of the corn crop will get planted on time and under good conditions. The old crop/new crop spreads in corn continue to weaken a little giving the market a little bit of a mixed feel. Typically, in a “bull” market, the old crop to new crop spreads should firm up.
Soybeans continue to find good support. July futures are back trading above $12.00 and looking like they could head up and test their highs from early March. The Funds continue to pile into the soybean oil complex as they are holding a record long position. Eventually this will be bearish to the market but the trend for now is up. Planting progress this afternoon should show soybeans around 35% planted which is well ahead of the 5-year average pace. We have plenty of soybeans across the World so when the Funds decide to hit the exit door, it could be a wild ride down. For now, the trend is still up.
Wheat prices are taking a step back this morning. The market has done a pretty good job of pricing in the poor wheat conditions in the southern wheat plains states. There are some good rains in the extended forecast for the driest part of the southern plains. Those rains will not help the wheat crop but will sure help out the pastures and might allow farmers to plant some soybeans or sorghum.