April 1, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 4-5c,
🌱soybeans are down 5-6c,
🍞wheat is down 12-13c,
🛢️crude oil is down $1.29-$1.30,
💲US Dollar is down 44 points
-President Trump will address the nation tonight. Main focus of the speech will be the war with Iran.
-President Trump said yesterday he expects the U.S. to pull out of Iran in 2-3 weeks, signaling a de-escalation.
-USDA did not give us many surprises in the acreage and stocks report. Corn acres higher than trade estimates while soybean and wheat acres lower.
-Grain stocks report showed a little tighter stocks in corn, signaling strong demand and maybe last year’s crop was overstated?
-Rains are in the forecast for the wheat plains, bring some much-needed relief.
🐂🐻 Look for a lower trade here today.
Support/Resistance:
May corn – Support on May corn is at $4.48 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.76 which is the high from March 9th.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.71 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.98 1/2 which is the high from March 9th.
May soybeans – Support comes in at $11.65 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.38 3/4 which is the high from March 12th.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.48 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.74 1/4 which is the high from March 12th.
May Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.20 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $6.47 1/2 which is the high from March 9th.
Where do we go from Here:
USDA gave us a prospective corn acres number of 95.4 million acres. This was about 1 million acres more than trade estimates. When those acres are combined with a little tighter grain stocks, we still have a comfortable supply of corn here in the U.S. Now, this is the prospective plantings report and will likely change. The combined corn and soybean acres added up to 180 million acres which seems a bit light in my eyes. Wheat acres down about 1 million and total grain/cotton acres estimated about 2.1 million acres less than what we planted last year suggests we could the corn and soybean acres creep a bit higher going into the June report. Keep in mind the Funds have built a massive, long position in the Ag sector and I don’t expect them to flush out of these longs anytime soon so they should keep the market supported. With the war in Iran looking to de-escalate, the focus will soon shift to U.S. planting weather.
On the soybeans, prospective planting came in about 850,000 less than trade estimates, which normally be a friendly surprise. However, soybean stocks and a record ending stocks has the soybean market feeling a bit heavy. Now, we still need to grow this crop, and we have a lot of weather to get through so until the crop is made, we should see some support. This biofuel topic is being talked across the entire World as more countries are looking to start blending biofuels or increase their mandates, giving the market some decent support. Soybean stocks came in a bit higher than estimates but that was not a surprise. Most traders are expecting the USDA to decrease their soybean export estimates in the next USDA report suggesting a little slower demand than previously thought. I look for soybeans to continue to trade between $11.50 to $11.75.
1 million less wheat acres are supportive to the market. However, there is some much-needed rain in the forecast putting pressure on the wheat futures here this morning. The trend continues that the U.S. is planting less wheat and with today’s economics, that trend doesn’t look to change anytime soon. If May Kansas City wheat does not hold support here in the $6.18-$6.20 area, look for a test of support at $6.00.
