March 9, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 8-9c,
🌱soybeans are up 18-19c,
🍞wheat is up 8-9c,
🛢️crude oil is up $12.82-$12.83,
💲US Dollar is up 31 points
-Crude oil surged to over $28 higher at one potin in overnight trade.
-The “closure” of the Strait of Hormuz is the largest oil supply shock in U.S. history with over 20 million barrels per day at stake.
-The money flow has been chasing commodities as an inflation hedge and money coming out of stocks and equities.
-Brazilian soybean harvest is right on average pace and the planting of the Safrinha corn crop is along on average pace.
-Crop estimates for the Brazilian soybean crop have been dropping a bit lately but still at record levels.
-The Funds are now holding a long position on corn and soybeans and a small, short position in Chicago Wheat.
🐂🐻 Look for a higher trade today to start off the week in what could be a wild week of trading.
Support/Resistance:
May corn – Support on May corn is at $4.49 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.79 1/4 which is the high from May 22nd.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.73 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.89 3/4 which is the high from May 15, 2024.
May soybeans – Support comes in at $11.75 1/2 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.58 3/4 which is the high from May 23, 2024.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.34 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.83 which is the high from May 7, 2024.
May Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.76 3/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $6.42 which is the high from June 20th.
Where do we go from Here:
It is all about the flow of money and we are seeing a lot of money exit the stock market and into commodities as crude oil is surging higher again. Crude oil is the main commodity to watch because when that stops going up, I would look for U.S. grain prices to pull back. Farmer selling was pretty strong last week, and I would look for that selling to slow up this week. The farmer might be holding less than 30% of his old crop corn and we haven’t even planted this year’s crop yet. We continue to hear of some acres getting switched over from corn to soybeans due to the price and availability of nitrogen. Fundamentally, the corn balance sheet has not changed. With the higher prices now, we could see some reductions in demand down the road but for now, the money is coming into commodities and the trend is up.
As crude oil surged to over $28 higher in the overnight trade, this is putting premium into the soybean oil futures as well and in turn the entire soy complex. With the first 4 trading months all above $12.00 now we continue to see the Funds build a long position. Last Friday the COT report showed the Funds long 198,902 contracts as of March 3rd. The Funds record long position ever held was 253,889 contracts, so we are approaching an area they might hold off on buying many more contracts. The Brazilian crop estimates have been getting a little smaller the past couple weeks as parts of southern Brazil have been seeing some tougher growing conditions but at the end of the day, they will still have a record crop. Soybean acres in the U.S. are seen rising as the price of nitrogen and availability are in question. Also, soybeans out of Brail are still at least $1 per bushel cheaper than U.S. soybeans. But the flow of money is into commodities and until we see that stop, we are probably headed higher.
The Funds are still holding a short position in Chicago wheat while they have a small, long position in Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat. Trade disruption in the Middle East does help U.S. wheat demand a little here in the near term but we eventually will work through the conflict with Iran and then U.S. wheat is simply too expensive compared to the rest of the World. Just like corn and soybean markets, the flow of money is into all commodities as an inflation trade. Crude oil is the biggest indicator and when that stops going higher, U.S. grain prices should see a pullback.
