March 5, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are up 4-5c,
🍞wheat is up 7-8c,
🛢️crude oil is up $1.96-$1.97,
💲US Dollar is up 18 points
-Crude oil prices are back up 2.5% this morning.
-USDA announced a flash sale of 125,000 metric tons of corn to unknown destinations.
-Extended weather forecasts are calling for good rains across much of the direst areas in the U.S.
-Parts of southern Brazil are experiencing some drier conditions causing analysts to lower their estimates on the Brazilian soybean crop.
-Weekly ethanol production was at the lowest level since the winter even we had in January. Ethanol stocks rose as well to the second highest level for late February.
-Weekly export sales will be out at 7:30 am CST. Here are the estimates courtesy of Reuters: corn 600,000-1,600,000 metric tons, soybeans 300,000-1,000,000 metric tons, wheat 200,000-500,000 metric tons and soybean meal 200,000-450,000 metric tons.
🐂🐻 Look for a higher trade today.
Support/Resistance:
May corn – Support on May corn is at $4.41 1/2 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.56 3/4 which is the high from January 12th.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.68 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.74 1/4 which is the high from March 3rd.
May soybeans – Support comes in at $11.63 1/2 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.85 which is the high from March 2nd.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.26 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.39 3/4 which is the high from March 3rd.
May Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.58 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.95 1/4 which is the high from March 2nd.
Where do we go from Here:
May corn futures are gaining back most of what they lost yesterday. Ethanol production was off yesterday, and we saw ethanol stocks build from last week as well, adding some pressure to the corn market. We are also hearing of some competition in the World market on corn coming out of Ukraine. Demand for U.S. corn still remains stout and that is providing good support. Yesterday, May corn futures traded below the 10-day, 20-day and 50-day moving averages but managed to close above all of them levels. When looking at the May corn chart, it looks like we could be heading into a wedge formation towards the end of March and then we could see a breakout in either direction. With the March 31st Perspective Plantings report and Quarterly Grain Stocks report, this makes a lot of sense.
Soybeans had a 27 1/2 cent trading range on Monday and so far, the rest of the week, we have been trading inside of that range. There is a little chatter of southern Brazil getting dry, cutting back their estimates on their soybean production, but at the end of the day, Brazil still has a record crop. The farmer is down to holding maybe 10% of his crop and the Funds are estimated over 200,000 contracts long. There has been some new crop soybean selling, maybe 5-10%, but it feels like we need to get closer to $11.50 November 2026 futures to see the new crop selling pickup. Higher nitrogen prices this week is also a factor that could push a few fringe area acres to soybeans, especially in the Delta.
The Funds continue to support wheat futures on breaks. The 10-day moving average has been providing good support and will be a key area to watch going forward. The U.S. Dollar is back trading 98-99 again, making the U.S. less competitive and the U.S. has some good rains looking to hit some of the direst areas over the next 2 weeks. I look for the Funds to remain fairly neutral to building a small, long position in wheat and that should give wheat futures some support.
