March 4, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are up 1-2c,
🍞wheat is down 3-4c,
🛢️crude oil is up $0.70-$0.71,
💲US Dollar is down 17 points
-President Trump says he still plans to meet with China in April and maintains they have a great relationship.
-President Trump instructed Secretary Treasury Scott Bessent to cut off all dealings with Spain as they have been uncooperative.
-President Trump also said the U.S. Navy could escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz to keep them safe.
-Grain prices failed to hold strong gains again yesterday as crude pulled off their highs.
-Flash sale of 196,000 metric tons of corn was announced yesterday to unknown destinations.
-Brazil crop estimates are starting to come down a bit but will still be a record.
🐂🐻 Look for a mixed trade today.
Support/Resistance:
May corn – Support on May corn is at $4.41 1/2 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.56 3/4 which is the high from January 12th.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.60 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.74 1/4 which is the high from March 3rd.
May soybeans – Support comes in at $11.62 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.85 which is the high from March 2nd.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.24 3/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.39 3/4 which is the high from March 3rd.
May Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.58 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.95 1/4 which is the high from March 2nd.
Where do we go from Here:
May corn futures failed to hold above $4.50 again yesterday. Demand remains robust with another flash export sale of 196,000 metric tons of corn to unknown destinations. Export demand continues to run ahead of the pace need to hit USDA’s projection so we could see another revision upward on exports. The farmer seems to be a pretty good seller of old crop corn above the $4.50 level so without any major news, corn could consolidate in here a bit and could see a slight pullback. The Funds are holding a fairly neutral position, and I would expect that to continue that way until we get into spring weather and acreage estimates.
Soybean prices were all over the board yesterday. May soybeans were up 18-19 cents yesterday morning, then traded slightly lower and at the close it felt like the Funds stepped in a bought beans on the close to finish the day 6 1/2 cents higher. The Funds are estimated to be over 200,000 contracts long so they will continue to support the market on breaks. Soybean oil, which has been leading this market higher, is looking a bit sluggish up here. Crude oil prices failed to hold their strong moves 2 days in a row and now that the U.S. could have the Navy escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz to keep crude oil flowing to the rest of the World. Soybean prices feel a bit toppy here and could see a correction.
Wheat prices look to be a follower. The U.S. is getting some very beneficial rains for the winter wheat this week and with the U.S. Dollar back trading above 99 again, the U.S. is just not competitive on the World market. May Kansas City wheat is testing support at the 10-day moving average here this morning and a break below the 10-day moving average could push May Kansas City wheat price down to support at $5.60.
