February 23, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 7-8c,
🍞wheat is down 4-5c,
🛢️crude oil is down $0.33-$0.34,
💲US Dollar is down 12 points
-President Trump is raising baseline tariffs to 15% from 10% effective immediately after the Supreme Court struck down hie IEEPA-base tariff framework.
-Violence is erupting across Mexico as one of the cartel leaders was taken out over the weekend.
-The Funds continue to buy grains. In the Friday COT report Funds are estimated short 27,415 contracts of corn, long 163,611 contracts of soybeans and short 97,370 contracts of wheat.
-Tensions between the U.S. and Iran are heating up as the U.S. is putting more military ships and aircraft in place in the Middle East.
-News out of South America was pretty quiet over the weekend.
🐂🐻 Look for a lower trade to start off this last week of trade for February.
Support/Resistance:
March corn – Support on March corn is at $4.17 3/4 which is the January 13th low. Resistance is at $4.36 1/4 which is the low from January 5th.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.33 1/2 which is the January 16th low. Resistance comes in at $4.50 3/4 which is the low from January 5th.
March soybeans – Support comes in at $11.29 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.48 1/4 which is the high from February 20th.
July soybeans – Support is at $11.56 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.75 which is the high from February 20th.
March Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.49 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.78 1/2 which is the high from February 20th.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn prices are starting out a bit lower here this morning as President announced he will be increasing the baseline tariff for all imported goods to the U.S. from 10% up to 15% after the Supreme Court struck down his IEEPA-based tariff framework deal. Traders are waiting to see if there are any retaliatory efforts. Mexico and Canada could be covered under the USMCA trade deal which is good news as Mexico is the U.S. largest buyer of corn. Safrinha corn planting is making progress in Brazil, however they are still running a bit behind schedule which could affect their yield as some of those acres could pollinate during their dry period. Corn seems to be more of a follower to start out the week.
Soybeans are starting out the week 7-8 cents slower as traders wait to see if other countries will retaliate against the U.S. over the increase in baseline tariffs. When South America is already cheaper than the U.S. on soybeans, an increase in tariffs will only make them cheaper. Does this announcement make China to stop considering buying another 8 mmt tons of soybeans from the U.S. this season? As it stands right now, we have plenty of soybeans in the U.S. and World, so traders are taking a little bit of money off the table. The Funds have built a sizeable, long position in the soybean complex, estimated at 163,611 contracts long as of February 17. For the past week, March soybeans have been in a trading range between $11.20 and $11.50.
The Funds were estimated to have bought back about 26,772 contracts between February 11th and February 17th. Kansas City and Chicago wheat are both trading above the 200-day moving average, and this is greeted by the Funds buying back some of their short positions. The increase on all imported goods into the U.S. could slow up wheat demand out of the U.S. as we struggle to be competitive anyway. The trend is still up and so far, today we just have an inside day of trading. Look for wheat to follow corn and soybeans.
