February 17, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are down 1-2c,
🍞wheat is down 4-5c,
🛢️crude oil is up $0.90-$0.92,
💲US Dollar is up 21 points
-Relatively quiets 3-day weekend for the commodity markets.
-Some good rains are scheduled for Brazil in the 7-day forecast after a dry spell. Argentina has been getting decent rains the past 2-weeks.
-Much above normal temps across much of the U.S. has the farmer moving lots of grain. Hearing report of long truck lines everywhere.
-Funds are currently short about 48,000+ contracts of corn, long 123,000+ contracts of soybeans and short 124,000+ contracts of wheat.
-Last week we saw a record 1-week Fund position change in which Funds bought an estimated 94,316 contracts.
-USDA Ag Outlook conference is Thursday and Friday this week.
🐂🐻 Look for a lower trade to start out this shortened week of trading.
Support/Resistance:
March corn – Support on March corn is at $4.17 3/4 which is the January 13th low. Resistance is at $4.36 1/4 which is the low from January 5th.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.33 1/2 which is the January 16th low. Resistance comes in at $4.50 3/4 which is the low from January 5th.
March soybeans – Support comes in at $11.14 1/2 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.41 1/2 which is the high from February 12th.
July soybeans – Support is at $11.40 1/2 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.68 1/4 which is the high from February 12th.
March Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.36 1/2 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.55 1/4 which is the high from February 12th.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn prices are a little lower to start off the week. We are seeing more farmer selling here lately as the weather across much of U.S. is exceptional. Combination of a stagnant prices and a record crop along with farmers needing some cash has corn moving here the past 2 weeks. The recent surge in cash movement is keeping corn prices limited to the upside, but the demand for U.S. corn should keep prices well supported. USDA Ag Outlook Forum will take place later this week and could give us a little fresh input to drive the corn prices in either direction.
Weahter in South America has been a mixed bag. There have been a few reports of too much rain in Brazil, causing delays in planting their Safrinha corn crop while parts of Argentina are on the dry side. The 7–14-day forecast does look to straighten out and get back to normal weather for Brazil and Argentina. The Funds set a record 1-week position change last week with them buying 94,000+ contracts on the week due to China saying they are considering buying more beans from the U.S. this season. Time will tell if China buys the beans or not, but for now, the money flow is betting on them buying the beans so that should keep soybeans supported even in the wake of a record soybean crop in Brazil.
Just when one thinks the wheat is ready to breakout to the upside, reality sets in and we trend lower. Last week, March Kansas City wheat closed above the 200-day moving average for the first time in several months and now today we are well below the 200-day moving average. There has been some activity in Chicago wheat that does suggest we might be seeing the Funds wanting to get out of their short positions as the spreads in Chicago wheat really firmed up last week. I would expect wheat to test and hold support here early this week.
