February 10, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is unchanged to slightly higher,
🌱soybeans are up 1-2c,
🍞wheat is down 1-2c,
🛢️crude oil is down $0.08-$0.09,
💲US Dollar is up 3 points
-It is report day!
-USDA will release its February Crop Production report. Here are the estimates for the U.S. carryout: corn 2.227 billion bushels, soybeans 347 million bushels and wheat 918 million bushels.
-Trade is looking for the USDA to increase their estimate on Brazil’s corn and soybean production while decreasing their production estimate for Argentina.
-Weekly export inspections were strong for corn and wheat and within trade expectations for soybeans.
-The U.S. Dollar trading back below 97 will help keep U.S. grain prices competitive.
-Weather continues to be a non-event for South America.
🐂🐻 Look for a pretty quiet 2-sided trade here today.
Support/Resistance:
March corn – Support on March corn is at $4.17 3/4 which is the January 13th low. Resistance is at $4.36 1/4 which is the low from January 5th.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.33 1/2 which is the January 16th low. Resistance comes in at $4.50 3/4 which is the low from January 5th.
March soybeans – Support comes in at $10.78 1/2 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.15 1/4 which is the high from February 4th.
July soybeans – Support is at $11.01 1/2 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.38 which is the high from February 5th.
March Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.26 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.48 which is the 200-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
The corn market had a very quiet 2 3/4 cent trading range yesterday to start out the week. The USDA will release its February Crop Production report, and this report isn’t expected to give us too many surprises. The trade is looking for the U.S. corn carryout stocks to stay relatively unchanged. The bigger question is will the USDA increase their estimate for toe Brazilian corn crop? World ending stocks are still on the tighter side but with a potential big Safrinha corn crop coming, we could see the World ending stocks work a little higher.
Soybean prices are gaining back a couple cents they lost yesterday. USDA will give us their updated projections on the South American crop size here this morning. Most traders are looking for the USDA to increase their estimate for the Brazilian soybean crop as many private estimates are projecting a crop size above 180 mmt. China did buy a few more soybean from the U.S., but that news was priced into the marketplace last week. The big question is will we continue to see China buy more beans from the U.S over the next few months or was that purchase just a one off? The trade will turn its attention to the USDA February Crop production report. The February report is usually a very quiet report, and I just don’t expect too many surprises here today.
March Kansas City wheat is back down testing support at the 100-day moving average. The U.S. Dollar trading back below 97 again should help U.S. wheat be a little more competitive. Wheat will be a follower of the corn and bean prices here today.
