February 6, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are up 2-3c,
🍞wheat is down 0-1c,
🛢️crude oil is down $1.00-$1.01,
💲US Dollar is up 2-3 points
-Weekly export sales yesterday was within trade estimates but at the lower end for corn, soybeans and wheat.
-Rains in Argentina were a bit underperforming but there is more on the way this weekend into early next week.
-Crop estimates in Brazil keep getting bigger.
-Money flows seem to be jumping into the soybean complex as the talk of China possibly buying another 8 mmt of soybeans from the U.S. has that market strong as of late.
-On Tuesday we will get the February USDA Crop Production report. We will have out pre-report video out on Monday afternoon.
🐂🐻 Look for a mixed/choppy trade to end the first week of February.
Support/Resistance:
March corn – Support on March corn is at $4.17 3/4 which is the January 13th low. Resistance is at $4.36 1/4 which is the low from January 5th.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.33 1/2 which is the January 16th low. Resistance comes in at $4.50 3/4 which is the low from January 5th.
March soybeans – Support comes in at $10.80 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.15 1/4 which is the high from February 4th.
July soybeans – Support is at $11.02 1/4 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.37 1/4 which is the high from February 4th.
March Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.26 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.48 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
The corn market finally found some strength yesterday. March corn pushed through last week’s high and ran into resistance at $4.6 before stalling out. This $4.32-$4.36 area is filled with old lows that have become resistance. If we can muster up a trade above $4.36, I would expect March corn to test the $4.40-$4.45 area and that is where we will likely find some more farmer selling. Fundamentals are still supportive corn. This week we did see a drop in ethanol production but that was due to the bitter cold temps we saw across the U.S. the past 2 weeks. Also, weekly export sales were over 1 mmt but were at a 22-week low. That is still a solid week, and we won’t have bigger export sales every week. All in all, I still am convinced March corn stays in a $4.15 to $4.35 trading range.
Soybean had a nice rebound back up yesterday after the Wednesday trade saw us close 20+ cents off the high. On Wednesday when the news come out that China is considering buying up to 20 mmt of soybeans from the U.S., we saw a massive swing higher only to get met with a bunch of commercial selling or farmer selling and we pulled back well off those highs. To follow it back up and close 18-19 cents higher yesterday does confirm to me that the trade is fully expecting China to follow through with this consideration. Time will tell if they follow through or not but for now, the soybean market should be well supported on pull backs.
Very little new in the wheat complex. Wheat continues to be a follower, and the March Kansas City wheat futures continue to trade very technically. We saw a break this week and found support at the 100-day moving average and that is also the uptrend line that has been in place since the middle of December. It looks like March Kansas City wheat might be headed back up to the 200-day moving average at $5.48 1/2.
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