February 4, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 2-3c,
🍞wheat is down 3-4c,
🛢️crude oil is up $0.07-$0.08,
💲US Dollar is up 11-12 points
-The Treasury Department released an update to the 45Z regulation, boosting soybean oil.
-NASS soybean crush for December was right in line with expectations.
-Weather is bring some e=beneficial rains to Argentina while Brazil ramps up harvest.
-StoneX released their estimate for Brazil’s crop production and took the soybean crop up 4 mmt up to 181.6 mmt while their projection for corn is at 135.5 mmt.
-Flash export sales of grain have been quiet so far this week.
🐂🐻 Look for a lower trade here today.
Support/Resistance:
March corn – Support on March corn is at $4.17 3/4 which is the January 13th low. Resistance is at $4.34 1/2 which is the low from November 24th.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.33 1/2 which is the January 16th low. Resistance comes in at $4.48 1/4 which is the low from November 21st.
March soybeans – Support comes in at $10.60 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.80 which is the 50-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support is at $10.85 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.02 1/4 which is the 50-day moving average.
March Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.26 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.49 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
March corn futures have been choppy this week. Lower to start out the week on Monday, back higher on Tuesday and now lower to start out the day on Wednesday. Overall, we are still in an uptrend, so the chart still looks good. Some beneficial rains are hitting Argentina this week, providing some relief, however there are a few private analysts that are lowering their crops estimate for Argentia corn production. March corn feels very content to consolidate here between $4.15 and $4.35.
The Treasury Department releasing their rules for the 45Z program was a shot in the arm for soybean oil and that spilled over into the soybean futures. The big win is the domestic feedstocks in the biofuel space. There are restrictions on imported feedstocks outside U.S., Canada and Mexico. This should eliminate the UCO imported from China. In other news, StoneX raised their soybean crop estimate for Brazil up to 181.6 mmt, which is a 4 mmt increase from last update. I continue to look for March soybeans to trade between $10.40 and $10.80.
March Kansas City wheat futures continue to consolidate between a broad range of $5.00 to $5.50 and a tighter range of $5.25 and $5.50. The story on winterkill has run its course and does not look to be as bad as traders feared. The U.S. Dollar seems to be stabilizing around 97-97.5 and Russian wheat continues to be the cheapest wheat in the World. Look for March Kansas City wheat to consolidate between $5.25 and $5.50.
We’re here to help. Call any of our hedging strategists at 844-4AG-MRKT.
