December 22, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are up 3-4c,
🍞wheat is up 4-5c,
🛢️crude oil is up $1.00-$1.01,
💲US Dollar is down 11-12 points
-Corn and soybean prices starting out the week a bit higher.
-Crude oil is up $1 after hitting 4 1/2-year lows last week. Tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela are heating up.
-COT report and USDA Export Sales reports continue to catch up. COT report might be caught up by end of next week.
-Corn export demand continues to run at a very strong pace, suggesting we might see USDA increase their annual export number higher yet again.
-January soybeans broke down below the 200-day moving average end of last week. This morning, the 200-day moving average is giving us resistance.
-March corn futures briefly traded below the 100-day moving average but quickly traded back above it, however March corn futures are hitting resistance at the 200-day moving average.
🐂🐻 Look for a higher trade today to start off the Christmas week of trading.
Support/Resistance:
March corn – Support on March corn is at $4.37 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.46 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.52 3/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.61 which is the 200-day moving average.
January soybeans – Support comes in at $10.46 1/2 which is the high from October 3rd. Resistance is at $10.69 1/2 which is the 10-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support is at $10.80 1/2 which is the low from December 19th. Resistance is at $11.00 1/2 which is the 10-day moving average.
March Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.03 1/4 which is the October 21st low. Resistance comes in at $5.17 which is the 10-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn market is starting out the week higher after they closed out last week 3c higher. Farmer selling is very light as the futures have just been range bound between $4.35 and $4.46 on the March contract. Basis levels in some areas of the U.S. are firming up a little and the bull spreads are working here today too to try and shake some bushels loose. Export sales continue to run at record pace. If we don’t seem exports slow down here soon, the USDA will likely need to increase their export number on the balance sheet. We have a shortened trading week this week with Christmas on Thursday so I would look for a lower volume of trades as traders take an extended holiday break. I continue to sound like a broken record, but I feel March corn is still range bound between $4.35 and $4.50.
Soybean futures are trying to start out the week higher after January futures were 27 1/2c lower last week. China has been offering out soybeans for sale from their reserves and in return they are replacing those stocks with the 12 MMT of soybeans they agreed to buy from the U.S. The first 2 reserve auctions China held were well received and majority of the soybeans got sold. Their last auction last week, only saw about 30-35% of the bushels get sold. So, there is some concern now that China will not buy the rest of the 12 MMT they agreed to buy from the U.S. The Funds continue to unwind with long positions going into the new year getting closer to a neutral position. January soybeans are finding a little support here around $10.50 which is right in the middle of the majority of consolidated trade we saw January futures trade this past 12 months.
March Kansas City wheat hit support at $5.03 last week and held it. Since hitting support and holding, March Kansas City futures have rallied about 15-16c and are running into resistance at the 10-day moving average. The U.S. Dollar has been grinding a little lower and with the cheaper board prices, U.S. wheat is getting a little more competitive. As March Kansas City wheat futures approach the $5.00 level, it seems like more of a value buy than anything with good support around $5.00 but rallies above $5.20 are limited.
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