December 9, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 3-4c,
🌱soybeans are down 1-2c,
🍞wheat is up 2-3c,
🛢️crude oil is up $0.07-$0.08,
💲US Dollar is down .01-.02
-USDA will release its December Crop Production report at 11:00 am CST.
-Trade estimates on U.S. ending stocks come in at 2.129 billion bushels of corn, 308 million bushels of soybeans and 889 million bushels of wheat.
-China bought 132,000 MT to soybeans yesterday with rumors they are looking for more this week.
-Rumors in the market yesterday that China is looking to but some sorghum from the U.S.
-President Trump announced yesterday he will distribute $11 billion out to farmers in the Farmer Bridge Assistance program by Feb. 28, 2026.
-Weekly export inspections saw corn and wheat at the top end of expectations while soybeans were within trade expectations.
🐂🐻 Look for a mixed trade today.
Support/Resistance:
March corn – Support on March corn is at $4.36 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.47 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.52 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.62 which is the 200-day moving average.
January soybeans – Support comes in at $10.89 3/4 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.17 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support is at $11.21 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.45 1/2 which is the 10-day moving average.
March Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.26 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.35 which is the 100-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
USDA Crop Production report out today. This should be a very quiet report since we typically do not see any updates on the production side so if we get any changes, it will be on the demand side. Trade is looking for a slight reduction in ending stocks for corn mainly looking at either export or ethanol usage to creep a bit higher. The bull spreads are working here this morning, pushing corn up 3 cents. The U.S. corn is the cheapest corn in the World right now so hard to get too bearish over that fact. The U.S. still has a pile of corn to get cleaned up from harvest and that seems to be limiting up to the upside.
Soybean ending stocks are estimated to come in a bit higher than last month. Not a big surprise there considering China was absent from buying U.S. soybeans for a few months. January soybeans confirmed we have a head and shoulders top in place. The next question is where do they find support? A 100% extension to the downside would put January soybeans at $10.58 1/4 which would fill the gap we left from October 24th. With the Funds holding a big, long position, it would not surprise me if they sold off some of that length going into the end of the year.
Wheat had a solid week of export inspections yesterday. There have been a few rumors floating around that China has been looking to buy some U.S. wheat but no confirmation yet. March Kansas City wheat futures are finding support at the 50-day moving average, but the upside is limited to the 100-day moving average. The Funds still hold a big, short position so once above the 100-day moving average, I would expect more buying to surface.
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