December 4, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are up 2-3c,
🍞wheat is up 1-2c,
🛢️crude oil is down $0.81-$0.82,
💲US Dollar is up .29-.30
-Tensions in the Black Sea seemed to have cooled down a bit.
-Weekly ethanol production hit an all-time weekly high for production last week at 1.126 million bpd.
-China was rumored to be in buying more U.S. soybeans. There is some confusion if China is to buy 12 MMT of soybeans by year end or if it is by the end of the 2025-26 marketing year.
-Export soybean values were a bit firmer yesterday, suggesting we could see some new soybean purchases from China.
-Weather has improved in South America and especially Argentina.
-March corn futures are back trading below the 200-day moving average and January soybeans are holding support at $11.13-$11.15.
🐂🐻 Look for another mixed/choppy trade here today.
Support/Resistance:
March corn – Support on December corn is at $4.36 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.48 which is the 200-day moving average.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.52 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.62 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average.
January soybeans – Support comes in at $11.13 1/4 which is the November 21st low. Resistance is at $11.69 1/4 which is the high from November 18, 2025.
July soybeans – Support is at $11.39 3/4 which is the November 21st low. Resistance is at $11.81 1/2 which is the high from November 18, 2025.
March Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.19 1/2 which is the November 21st low. Resistance comes in at $5.36 which is the 100-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
March corn futures just cannot hold above the 200-day moving average. After closing above the 200-day moving average on Tuesday, March corn took back most of the gains from Tuesday. So far this week March futures are trading inside our daily range from Monday and we should find some light support at Monday’s low at $4.42 1/4. Ethanol production was strong for the last week of November as the ethanol plants in the west continue to grind at full capacity or better as the western corn-belt has a huge amount of corn to deal with and profitable margins. My mind has not changed much, and I look for March corn to consolidate between $4.35 and $4.50 until we get some fresh news to trade on.
January soybeans are flirting with potential disaster. There is some question on where the neckline of a potential head and shoulder high comes in but it seems to be in the $11.13-$11.15 area. So far, we have been able to hold that support but, in my experience, the more times we test that support, we will eventually break that support. Regardless of where the neckline actually comes in, if January soybeans break below $11.00, we should see the gap get filled which would push January soybeans down to $10.63. There is a USDA Crop Production report coming out next Tuesday so I would look for support on January soybeans to hold for now and see if we get any surprises in the December Crop Production report.
March Kansas City wheat futures had an inside day of trading yesterday. Tensions in the Black Sea region have cooled down a bit and we are seeing March Kansas City wheat reject the 100-day moving average but hold support at $5.19 1/2. With the upcoming USDA report next week, I would look for March Kansas City wheat to continue to consolidate between $5.20 and $5.35.
We’re here to help. Call any of our hedging strategists at 844-4AG-MRKT.
