October 31, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 1-2c,
🍞wheat is down 4-5c,
🛢️crude oil is down 54-55c,
💲US Dollar is up 1-2 points.
-President Trump cut fentanyl tariffs in 1/2 while cutting all tariffs on imported Chinese goods to 47% while China committed, among other things, buying U.S. agriculture products.
-China has agreed to buy 12 MMT soybeans from the U.S. this year and also committed to buy 25 MMT of soybeans each year of the next 3 years.
-CIF and PNW values firmed up. This should support basis levels across the U.S.
-First notice day for November soybeans is today.
-The weather looks for 1 last big weekend of corn harvest.
🐂🐻Look for mixed to lower trade today to finish out the week.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $4.22 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.37 which is the 200-day moving average.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.52 3/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.65 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support comes in at $10.45 1/2 which is the bottom side of the gap left on October 24th. Resistance is at $11.04 1/4 which is the high from September 30, 2024.
July soybeans – Support is at $10.89 1/4 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.40 1/2 which is the high from October 30th.
December Kansas City wheat – Support is at $4.96 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.27 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn futures are working on their 3rd higher week in a row. The news on corn has been rather limited. Harvest continues to get closer to wrapping up. Farmer selling of corn did pick up a little this week as December corn futures ran into resistance in the $4.35 area. The 200-day moving average did stop December corn futures this week and one would sure think that if/when we trade above the 200-day moving average, we could see more buying surface and push corn futures up towards $4.45-$4.50. For now, it looks like December corn is going to pull back a little and the $4.20 area should provide good support.
The trade deal between the U.S. and China is supportive to the soybean complex. China has agreed to buy 12 MMT of soybeans this year so look for China to start buying immediately and those purchases will likely get put on the books before the end of the year but shipped sometime next year. Going forward, China has agreed to buy 25 MMT of soybeans each year for the next 3 years. This gets China back to buying about what they normally buy from the U.S. Yes, these numbers are supportive to prices, but we are still dealing with World ending stocks that are plentiful and Brazil looking to plant 3.6% more soybean acres this year. Basis levels should firm up on soybeans across the U.S. but keep in mind, we have a big book of corn export business out of the PNW already. Squeezing in an increase in soybean demand out of the U.S. gets tricky and will take some time to get these soybean bushels out the door. In the meantime, soybean prices should be well supported on breaks.
Yes, December Kansas City wheat is lower for the 2nd day in a row, but they are working on their 3rd higher weekly close in a row. The news has been limited for wheat lately but with December Kansas City wheat futures closing above the 50-day moving average and holding above there all week that is impressive and helps confirm a low is in place. Typically, when we put in a low, we do not go straight up so look for wheat to pull back and consolidate a little in here.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
We are not expecting any USDA reports until the Government is back open.
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