October 7, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are up 2-3c,
🍞wheat is down 0-1c,
🛢️crude oil is down 16-17c,
💲US Dollar is up 30-31 points.
-The White House is set to announce an aid package today to farmers for the market losses due to ongoing trade war with China.
-Weekly export inspections were released out yesterday morning. Corn was at a marketing year high with soybeans and wheat both at the upper end of range expectations.
-Brazil corn and soybean planting is off to a great start this year.
-The U.S. Stock market closed at new all-time highs yesterday.
🐂🐻Look for another choppy trade session today.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $4.14 3/4 which is the 50-day moving average Resistance is at $4.23 3/4 which is the 100-day moving average.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.49 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.56 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support comes in at $10.05 which is the September 3rd low. Resistance is at $10.28 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support is at $10.66 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.81 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
December Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $4.88 which is the low from October 1st. Resistance comes in at $5.06 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
December corn futures seem very content to trend sideways between $4.15 and $4.24. We did get the weekly export inspections out yesterday morning and they were very good for corn again. Demand continues to run very strong. As harvest moves along most of us are expecting the national yield to drop once the Government is back open and we get our next Crop Production report. However, a lower yield is likely, that does not translate into a lower ending stock number. The Grain Stocks report we got on September 30th found 207 million more corn bushels and when we look at the feed usage number for this marketing year, it is likely overstated at this point. We still got a lot of harvest to work through and a lot of the marketing year ahead but for now the corn market seems content to trend sideways.
The White House is expected to make an announcement today regarding an aid package to farmers for the market losses due to the ongoing trade war with China. The COT report was not released last Friday but traders are estimating the Funds are short around 40,000 contracts of soybeans. Harvest is wrapping up across a lot of areas in the U.S. I would expect basis levels to start to firm up soon as the fast harvest likely caused more soybeans to go into unconventional storage vs headed to town. National yields still feel they could be lowered in future USDA reports but without a trade deal in China, a lower yield will probably be offset by lower demand. Look for November soybeans to continue to trend sideways between $10.00 and $10.30.
Wheat futures just cannot seem to find any strong footing to stand on here lately. Wheat futures have been stuck in a downtrend channel since early this summer and cannot seem to break out of it. The U.S. is competitive on wheat prices in the World, but the Funds continue to hold a huge, short position across all 3 complexes. Looking at December Kansas City wheat futures, the first big area of resistance is the 20-day moving average which is at $5.06 1/2. If we can close above that level, the $5.10 area would be the next area of resistance.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
We are not expecting any USDA reports until the Government is back open.
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