October 6, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are up 2-3c,
🍞wheat is up 0-1c,
🛢️crude oil is up $1.09-$1.11,
💲US Dollar is up 72-73 points.
-The 6-10-day and 8-14-day weather forecasts are still calling for above normal temperatures and drier. The only precipitation is in the western corn belt.
-December corn futures are running into resistance at the 20-day and 100-day moving averages which come in around $4.22-$4.24.
-November soybean futures are running into resistance at the 100-day and 200-day moving average which both come in right at $10.28.
-Soybean harvest should be mostly wrapped up by the end of this week, and most farmers will get rolling on corn this week.
-Soybean yields still look to be pretty good across the U.S. and I would expect yields to hold within 0.5 bushel per acres from the last USDA projection.
-Corn yields are still variable, and I look for those yields to drop and could be closer to 183 bushels per acre compared to USDA estimate of 186.7 bushels per acre.
🐂🐻Look for a choppy/mixed trading day as we gear up for another big week of harvest across the U.S.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $4.14 1/2 which is the 50-day moving average Resistance is at $4.23 3/4 which is the 100-day moving average.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.48 3/4 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.56 3/4 which is the 100-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support comes in at $10.05 which is the September 3rd low. Resistance is at $10.29 which is the 100-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support is at $10.66 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.82 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
December Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $4.88 which is the low from October 1st. Resistance comes in at $5.07 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
The corn market is about 1 cent higher here this morning after starting the overnight session lower. It will be a big week of corn harvest as a lot of farmers will make the switch from soybeans over to corn. The weather looks good, but we still have a lot of questions on the yield. Demand is still strong for U.S. corn. With the Government shut down we are not getting our daily/weekly reporting from them, but basis levels seem to be mostly steady across the U.S., and the spreads have actually been a touch firmer last week. Look for December corn to chop around between $4.15 and $4.24 futures.
Soybean futures are 2 cents higher here this morning. Not a lot of fresh news in the soybean complex other than U.S. harvest should be wrapping up by the end of this week. Last Friday, November soybeans traded up into resistance in the $10.28-$10.29 area before backing off. Friday’s lower close I felt had more to do with hedge pressure going into a big harvest weekend on soybeans. The trend for November soybeans seems to be pretty well defined here trading between $10.00 on the lower end to $10.30 on the upper end.
Wheat futures are starting out the week 1 cent higher. Wheat prices are cheap, but the market does not seem to care. The Funds are still holding a big, short positions across all 3 wheat exchanges. Wheat is in a well-defined downtrend channel and until we breakout to the upside, rallies will be short lived. The U.S. Dollar in up 70+ points here this morning and that will put a little pressure on U.S. wheat prices as well.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
October 6, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress – No report with Government shutdown
October 9, 2025 – Crop Production Report
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