October 3, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are down 2-3c,
🍞wheat is down 0-1c,
🛢️crude oil is up 31-33c,
💲US Dollar is down 7-8 points.
-The weather looks to give us another big weekend for harvest activity. Soybean harvest is already on the downhill slide while corn harvest is picking up steam.
-President Trump is eyeing a $10 billion bailout package for U.S. farmers. Secretary Scott Bessent will announce more details Tuesday next week.
-Government is still shut down and could be for a while. We will not be getting our daily/weekly reports along with the odds of a USDA Crop Production on October 9th is likely to be canceled.
-Farmer selling picked up a little yesterday as corn and soybean prices are back up at the upper end of their recent ranges.
-We will not get the COT report this afternoon so no telling how many contracts the Funds have bought this week.
🐂🐻Look for a choppy to lower trade session today as we should see some hedge pressure going into the weekend.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $4.10 1/2 which is the October 1st low. Resistance is at $4.24 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.44 1/4 which is the October 1st low. Resistance comes in at $4.56 which is the 20-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support comes in at $9.98 1/4 which is the July 14th low. Resistance is at $10.24 1/2 which is the 50-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support is at $10.43 which is the August 6th low. Resistance is at $10.80 which is the 100-day moving average.
December Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $4.88 which is the low from October 1st. Resistance comes in at $5.08 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn futures started out yesterday a bit choppy but finished out the day with a 5c higher close. December corn is back trading at resistance at the $4.22-$4.24 area. There is an area of consolidation between $4.20-$4.30 that December corn futures could chop around in for a while. Harvest will shift its focus over to corn next week as soybean harvest is quickly wrapping up. With the Government shut down we are no longer getting out export sales reports but with spreads a bit firmer and basis level holding mostly steady, this has me feeling demand is still very good. Look for a little bit of hedge pressure as we head into another big harvest weekend.
November soybean prices are back trading into resistance. Harvest is quickly starting to wrap up across much of the U.S. and yields continue to be mixed. The recent hot/dry weather pattern has been great for harvest progress but the moisture content in soybeans is getting into the single digits and that is taking away our top end yields. President Trump and President Xi meeting is still 4 weeks away, but traders are optimistic as one of the main focuses in their next meeting will be about China buying U.S. soybeans. With harvest on the downhill slide, a lot of beans got tucked away in farm storage across the U.S. so I would think spreads and basis levels could start to firm up here shortly.
Wheat futures all posted a higher close yesterday. They still remain in a downtrend that has been intact since early this summer. Watching the Kansas City December contract, we will need to get a close above the 20-day moving average to signal a potential low is in place. However, we have closed above the 20-day moving average here recently, but we don’t spend a lot of time above that area.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
October 6, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
October 9, 2025 – Crop Production Report
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