October 2, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are down 0-1c,
🍞wheat is down 0-1c,
🛢️crude oil is down 25-27c,
💲US Dollar is down 12-13 points.
-The weather in the 6-10-day forecast and 8-14-day forecast is still calling for above normal temperatures and above normal chances of rain across a good portion of the Midwest.
-StoneX come out with their updated yield estimates based off their survey. Corn yield is now estimated at 185.9 bushels per acre, which is down 1 bushel per acre from their September estimate and the soybean yield came in at 53.9 bushels per acres which is actually up 0.7 bushels per acre from their September estimate.
-President Trump announced on social media that he and President Xi of China will be meeting in person in 4 weeks. One of the main topics they will discuss is China buying U.S. soybeans. This helped turn the grain prices higher yesterday.
-Corn and soybeans both had outside day higher moves.
🐂🐻Look for a choppy trade session today.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $4.10 1/2 which is the October 1st low. Resistance is at $4.22 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.44 1/4 which is the October 1st low. Resistance comes in at $4.55 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support comes in at $9.98 1/4 which is the July 14th low. Resistance is at $10.24 1/2 which is the 50-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support is at $10.43 which is the August 6th low. Resistance is at $10.80 which is the 100-day moving average.
December Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $4.88 which is the low from October 1st. Resistance comes in at $5.08 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
President Trump got on social media yesterday and made a comment about his next meeting with President Xi of China will focus on China buying agricultural products from the U.S. and mainly soybeans. This comment took the corn and soybean futures from trading lower to closing out higher on the day. What is also interesting on December corn is we also found support very close to the 50% retracement of the $3.92 low to the $4.31 1/4 high over the past couple months. Time will tell if President Trump can strike a deal with China, but the market is optimistic a deal could get done. Rallies will still be limited because even if the USDA lowers corn yield in future reports, we now have an extra 195 million corn stocks to keep our ending stocks around 2 billion bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year.
President Trump made a comment specifically about China buying soybeans from the U.S. when he and President Xi will meet in 4 weeks. This was big news for the soybean complex and caused the beans to trade form 5-6c lower to closing out the day 11c higher. Without China buying U.S. soybeans, there are 200+ million bushels of export demand the USDA could cut from the U.S. demand equation. China already has booked a lot of soybeans mainly from South America so the question still remains is how many soybeans will buy from the U.S. this marketing year if a trade deal is struck? Harvest pressure is keeping a lid on prices as we could see a record harvest pace this week on soybeans.
Wheat futures continue their grind lower. With President Trumps comments about meeting with President Xi and talking with China about buying U.S. agricultural products, the wheat market still could not post a higher close. Wheat has plenty of supply in the U.S. and World so until corn or soybeans breakout to the upside, wheat will continue to grind sideways to a little lower.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
October 6, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
October 9, 2025 – Crop Production Report
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