October 1, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 2-3c,
🍞wheat is up 4-5c
🛢️crude oil is up $1.65,
-September 1 corn stocks came in at 2.095 billion bushels, 35% more than last year. Soybean stocks were revised lower by 3.1% from 1 year ago.
-U.S. ethanol production was down 2% from last week.
-U.S. weather continues to bring potential big rains for much of Iowa along with northern Illinois over the next 48 hours.
-USDA reported a flash sale of soybeans of 105,000 mt to unknown destinations.
-Weekly export sales will be out at 7:30am CST. Here are these estimates courtesy of Reuters: corn 500,000-1,300,000 metric tons, soybeans 850,000-1,000,000 metric tons, wheat 250,000-450,000 metric tons and soybean meal 100,000-450,000 metric tons.
🐂🐻 Look for a choppy/mixed trade for Thursday.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $4.85 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $5.24 which is the 10-day moving average.
March corn – Support comes in at $4.99 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.38 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support comes in at $12.57 1/2 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $13.08 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average.
March soybeans – Support is at $12.78 3/4 which is the low from September 14th. Resistance is at $13.32 which is the 10-day moving average.
December Kansas City wheat – Support is at $7.28 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $7.62 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
The USDA gave us another surprise yesterday. September 1 corn stocks came in well above trade estimates and we now have about a 2 bushels per acre cushion to the 2026/27 marketing year balance sheet. This should allow the USDA to lower the feed/residual demand number in the October 9th WASDE report by about 240-250 million bushels to get it more in line with the number of livestock we fed this past marketing year. The increase in corn stocks sent corn futures over 20 cents lower but seemed to find support around the $5.00 level. We will likely see support around the $5.00 initially. Harvest pressure in the west should pick up next week but we still continue to hear yields a bit more disappointing than expected. The gap on the December corn at $5.09 was filled yesterday so I would look for December corn to consolidate a bit between $4.98 and $5.15.
The September 1 soybean stocks were on the friendly side of things. We saw a 9 million bushel drop in stocks allowing the 2025-26 marketing year ending stocks to come in at 315 million bushels. The weight of corn eventually pulled the soybean market lower, but we still have November soybeans holding above $12.90. The western part of the U.S. should get rolling on soybean harvest next week so we could see some hedging pressure. Early yields continue to come in as expected or better than expected. USDA did announce a flash sale of soybeans to unknown destinations yesterday so with the Grain Stocks report behind us now and last years ending stocks known, I would think China would be stepping back into our market to buy the remaining bushels they need to fulfill their 25 MMT obligation.
December Kansas City wheat is finding support at the 100-day moving average here this morning. The September 1 wheat stocks were a touch on the friendly side, but the negative corn number pulled wheat futures lower as well. News out of the Black Sea region has been quiet but Sovecon did reduce their Russian grain export forecast due to all the disruptions in the Black Sea.
