October 1, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are down 4-5c,
🍞wheat is down 5-6c,
🛢️crude oil is down 6-8c,
💲US Dollar is up 1-2 points.
-The U.S. corn ending stocks are reported to come in at 1.532 billion bushels, soybeans ending stocks at 316 million bushels and wheat ending stocks at 2.120 billion bushels.
-Corn ending stocks come in at 195 million higher than expected largely due to an increase in planted acres by 315,000.
-Soybean ending stocks come in about 7 million less than trade expectations.
-The U.S. Senate did not pass the CR bill last night, so the Government shut down at 12:00 midnight eastern.
-November soybeans held $10.00 yesterday but are currently below $10.00 this morning.
-Harvest pressure is full steam ahead.
🐂🐻Look for a lower trade today as traders sort through the USDA numbers and a government that is shut down.
Support/Resistance:
December corn – Support on December corn is at $4.14 1/5 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.32 3/4 which is a gap we left from July 7th.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.48 1/2 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.67 which is the 200-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support comes in at $9.98 1/4 which is the July 14th low. Resistance is at $10.62 3/4 which is the high from August 22nd.
July soybeans – Support is at $10.43 which is the August 6th low. Resistance is at $10.79 3/4 which is the 100-day moving average.
December Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.01 3/4 which is the low from September 4th. Resistance comes in at $5.09 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
The USDA found another 207 million stocks from the last USDA report increasing our ending stocks for the 2024/25 marketing year up to 1.532 billion bushels. This increase in stocks come from an additional 315,000 planted acres. Heading into the 2025/26 marketing year, we now have an additional 207 million bushels from the September 12th report added to our bottom line. Most traders are now expecting the USDA to cut the national corn yield in futures WASDE reports. However, with the Government currently shut down and no one knows for how long, the question now is will we get the October 9th Crop Production report or will it be canceled. The Government shut down is adding another bearish element to the situation. December corn futures are pulling back a little here this morning working towards filling the gap left when September futures went off the board which is at $4.05 1/4.
Soybean stocks basically come in right in line with what traders were expecting. A slight revision of 7 million bushels less than expected was one of the smallest changes to soybean stocks we have ever seen. Harvest is full steam ahead this week and adding hedge pressure as good yields are forcing some soybeans to town. November soybeans held the $10.00 level yesterday but are currently trading below $10.00 this morning. Between harvest pressure, lack of China and now the Government shut down, soybeans feel heavy in here and could push down towards $9.80.
The USDA gave us a negative wheat report. Trade was looking for a stocks number of 2.043 billion bushels, and it come in at 2.120 billion bushels. Wheat was already struggling to find bullish news and yesterday’s report did not help. December Kansas City wheat is back down trading below $5.00 and could be looking at $4.87 which is where September futures went off the board.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
October 6, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
October 9, 2025 – Crop Production Report
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