January 23, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are up 2-3c,
🍞wheat is up 2-3c,
🛢️crude oil is up $0.95-$0.96,
💲US Dollar is up 1-2 points
-USDA reported a flash soybean export sale yesterday of 192,350 metric tons to unknown destinations.
-Bitter cold temps and a big snowstorm is sweeping across the U.S. bringing grain delivery to a halt for a couple days.
-March soybeans made a new high for the month of January before hitting resistance and pulling back yesterday.
-Weekly export sales report will be out this morning. Here are the estimates: corn 2,000,000-3,000,000 metric tons, soybeans 1,500,000-3,200,000 metric tons, and wheat 150,000-450,000 metric tons.
-Trade is still optimistic we will get an announcement on the RVO policy next week.
🐂🐻 Look for a mixed trade today as we close out the week.
Support/Resistance:
March corn – Support on March corn is at $4.10 which is the August 12th low. Resistance is at $4.25 1/2 which is the October 14th low.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.28 1/2 which is the August 12th low. Resistance comes in at $4.41 1/2 which is the October 14th low.
March soybeans – Support comes in at $10.38 which is the low from January 2nd. Resistance is at $10.68 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support is at $10.80 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.04 which is the 100-day moving average.
March Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.08 1/4 which is the January 2nd low. Resistance comes in at $5.36 which is the high from December 26th.
Where do we go from Here:
March corn futures continue to struggle with this $4.25-$4.26 area. We have traded above there a couple times, but they cannot hold their momentum. The 10-day moving average is coming in today at $4.24 3/4 and if we can trade above that level and hold there for a while, we could see a little buying surface. Weekly export sales will be out this morning and they should be huge. Bitter cold temps and a snowstorm is sweeping across most of the U.S. which will bring halt to grain moving for a few days. The cold for the upper Midwest looks to last into next week with a slight warm up. This should help keep basis level steady to firmer. I still look for March corn to trade between $4.15 and $4.35.
March soybeans raced out to put in a new high trade for the month of January, but they failed to even close higher on the day. There was a 192,350 metric ton soybean sale announced yesterday, and rumors are that it might have been Mexico buying those bushels. China has fulfilled their obligation of buying 12 million metric tons of soybeans from the U.S. but what about the 25 million metric ton they agreed to buy in 2026 and 2027? My guess is we will see China show back up to buy soybeans from the U.S. later this summer into this fall when we get closer to harvest. Traders will also be anxious to see if we get an announcement on the 45Z program next week. I look for March soybeans to trade between $10.35 and $10.70.
March Kansas City wheat futures appear to be breaking out of the wedge formation they have been working on since the middle of November. March Kansas City wheat futures are trading above the 100-day moving average which could see the Funds to buy back some of their short positions. Initial resistance will be $5.36 but I think if we can trade above $5.36, we could push up towards the $5.44 3/4 high we saw on January 12th. The key today is can we close higher, outside of the wedge formation and above the 100-day moving average?
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