January 6, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are up 1-2c,
🍞wheat is down 0-1c,
🛢️crude oil is up $0.19-$0.20,
💲US Dollar is up 15-16 points
-COT report is up to date from the Government being shut down. Funds are short 23,000+ corn contracts, long 84,000+ soybean contracts and short 131,000+ wheat contract.
-Weekly export inspections were in line for corn and soybeans while wheat made a marketing year low.
-Weekly corn inspections are running 65% ahead of last year’s pace, soybeans are running 45% last year’s pace and wheat is running 20% ahead of last year’s export inspection pace.
-Fund rebalancing helped push grain higher yesterday.
-Weather in South America is a non-event.
-U.S. Stock hit an all-time record high yesterday with the Dow Futures hitting 49463.
🐂🐻 Look for a choppy/mixed trade here today.
Support/Resistance:
March corn – Support on March corn is at $4.39 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.45 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.54 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.60 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
March soybeans – Support comes in at $10.38 which is the low from January 2nd. Resistance is at $10.66 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support is at $10.64 3/4 which is the low from January 2nd. Resistance is at $10.86 3/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
March Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.03 which is the December 17th low. Resistance comes in at $5.28 which is the 100-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn futures had a nice rally yesterday. Most of the rally was caused by the S&P GSCI fund re-balancing. The fund re-balancing is said to be friendly to corn and wheat while soybeans could see some headwinds. March corn futures ran up into resistance at the 200-day moving average and are very quiet this morning. Traders are positioning themselves ahead of the January 12th Crop Production report. Trade should see a yield reduction, but the big question is what will the USDA do with demand? Export demand is very strong and probably needs to get raised while the feed demand could be lowered. The Funds are in a neutral position so they could go either direction. I still look for March corn to stay in the $4.35-$4.50 trading range until we get the January 12th crop report data out.
March soybeans had a nice 16+ cent rally yesterday and stopped right at the 20-day moving average. In the overnight trade, March soybeans are now testing the 200-day moving average. A close above the 200-day moving average could push the March soybeans up to the December 26th high of $10.82 1/2. Exports inspections were decent this week, but we are still running 45% behind last year’s pace. The January 12th crop report could see a slight yield reduction but their export estimate for the year is a bit lofty and probably will get lowered. South American weather is a non-event, and they are getting ready to start harvesting another record or near record soybean crop. Rallies in soybeans I feel will be limited barring a surprise out of the USDA on January 12th.
Wheat had a marketing year low for export inspections last week. Some of that had to deal with the holiday but wheat export inspections are running about 20% ahead of last year’s pace. The new year fund re-balancing should be favorable to wheat futures but even with that I look for March Kansas City wheat to consolidate between $5.00 and $5.30.
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