January 5, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are up 6-7c,
🍞wheat is up 0-1c,
🛢️crude oil is up $0.06-$0.07,
💲US Dollar is up 17-18 points
-Over the weekend, the U.S captured and took into custody Venezuelan President Maduro.
-Weather has been dry in Argentina over the past 7 days but looks to change this week.
-Brazil’s weather has been very good for soybean production but the 7–10-day forecast does look a bit drier.
-CFTC will release their COT report this afternoon due to New Years holiday last week. COT report should be up to date now.
-March corn futures are pushing back above the 100-day moving average while soybeans have some work to get back to the 200-day moving average.
🐂🐻 Look for a steady to higher trade here today to start out the first full week in 2026.
Support/Resistance:
March corn – Support on March corn is at $4.37 which is the low from January 2nd. Resistance is at $4.45 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.50 3/4 which is the low from January 2nd. Resistance comes in at $4.60 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
March soybeans – Support comes in at $10.38 which is the low from January 2nd. Resistance is at $10.66 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support is at $10.64 3/4 which is the low from January 2nd. Resistance is at $10.86 which is the 200-day moving average.
March Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.03 which is the December 17th low. Resistance comes in at $5.28 which is the 100-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
March corn is starting out the first full week of trading in 2026 a couple cents higher. The commitment of traders’ report will be up to date after CFTC releases their report this afternoon due to the New Years holiday last week. The report should show the Funds net long corn which is a bit surprising considering corn futures have been stuck between $4.35 and $4.50, and the Funds bought back a pretty sizeable, short position. Now that the Funds are holding a neutral to small, long position, I would expect them to be patient to see if a story develops. Right now, we are watching the weather in Brazil to see how the soybeans get harvested and if the safrinha corn crop gets planted on time. I look for March corn futures to move back up above $4.40 soon and continue to trade between $4.35 and $4.50.
Over the weekend the U.S. captured and took into custody Venezuelan President Maduro. There is a little fear in the marketplace we could see China retaliate here and potentially cancel off some of their recent soybean purchases. I have my doubts that will happen. Weather in Argentina has been dry for the past week but it does look like some rains are forecasted. Brazil has been seeing good rains and will now be on the dry side. Overall, the weather is a non-event in South America. Harvest is getting under way in Brazil with no major problems. The U.S. soybeans still remain uncompetitive and will likely be that way through most of the summer. Funds are still holding a long position of around 100,000 contracts. Soybean prices are starting out the week a bit higher on the dryness in Argentina. I look for soybean prices to consolidate here between $10.35 and $10.60.
Wheat futures are looking to start out the new year higher after selling off hard to close out 2025. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine are still elevated and President Trump is putting more pressure on Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy to get a peace deal done. The U.S. weather is looking to get cold again, but that cold weather will stay in the upper plains and not affect the winter wheat crop down south. Demand for U.S. wheat is steady. I would look for March Kansas City wheat to trade between $5.00 and $5.30.
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