AgMarket.Net® Early Morning Market Analysis 060625

June 6, 2025

At this hour:

🌽Corn market is down 2-3c,

🌱soybeans are down 3-4c,

🍞wheat is down 2-4c,

🛢️crude oil is down 13-14c,

💲US Dollar is up 21-22 points.

-Weekly export sales were all within the trade estimates, but at the lower end.
-Weather will bring some rains to the eastern corn belt with the majority of the U.S. starting to go into a warmer and drier trend.
-Crop conditions next Monday should see a gain in the good/excellent category.
-The bear spread in corn continues to work. For the week July corn is down 7c and December corn futures are up 7 cents.
-Grain market just look to sit and consolidate here until we find out more about the weather.

🐂🐻Look for a lower trade here today as we wrap trading for the first week of June.

Support/Resistance:

July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.37 which is the low from December 5th. Resistance is at $4.50 1/2 which is an old support/resistance line.

December corn – Support comes in at $4.34 1/2 which is the low from May 19th. Resistance comes in at $4.48 1/4 which is 200-day moving average.

July soybeans – Support comes in at $10.47 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.82 which is the May 14th high.

November soybeans – Support is at $10.17 which is an old support/resistance line. Resistance is at $10.33 1/2 which is the 200-day moving-day average.

July Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.23 which is the low from May 27th. Resistance comes in at $5.47 3/4 which is the high from May 21st.

Where do we go from Here:
The corn spreads continue to weaken here this week. The USDA Crop Production report will be out next week. Odds favor the USDA increasing their export projections which should decrease out carryout. However, we could see the feed demand for corn drop a little as we have fewer animals and more wheat could have used in rations. Net/net, I still look for a reduction in the U.S. corn carryout for the 2024/25 marketing year. Weather looks good in the majority of the U.S. so look for crop conditions scores to increase.

Soybean futures continue to consolidate and trend sideways. We are hearing that U.S. soybeans are getting more competitive to a few markets around the World. This could help increase demand which has been stagnant lately. Crop ratings for soybeans should increase in Monday’s report. Weather this week was seen as beneficial for the soybean crop and as we head into next week, the weather still looks great.

Harvest is slowly starting up in the southern wheat plains. Some big rains this week for eastern Kansas and Oklahoma have a few concerned about quality issues. If the rains stop now, the damage should be limited. July Kansas City wheat is still working on confirming the head and shoulders low. I am looking for a close above $5.47 to confirm. Going into a weekend, look for wheat futures to close a little lower.

Upcoming USDA Reports:
June 9, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
June 12, 2025 – USDA Crop Production

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   Cory Bratland
   Hedging Strategist
   cbratland@agmarket.net
   Willow Lake, SD
   605.657.1978 o
   605.520.9444 c
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