June 5, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 2-3c,
🍞wheat is up 0-1c,
🛢️crude oil is up 28-30c,
💲US Dollar is up 1-2 points.
-Very quiet 4-5c trading ranges for corn and soybeans in the overnight session.
-Pollination is starting in the deep south on some early corn and wheat looks to be pretty good. Temps in the 80’s with some rain coming this weekend into next week.
-July corn futures pushed below support at $4.37 but manages to close above that support level.
-December corn futures are back above the 20-day moving average and look to test the 200-day moving average soon at $4.48 1/4.
-Weekly export sales will be out this morning. Here are the estimates: corn – 800,000-1,700,000 metric tons, soybeans – 200,000-600,000 metric tons, wheat – 100,000-900,000 metric tons, and soybean meal – 200,000-700,000 metric tons.
🐂🐻Look for a mixed trade here today with lower volume and small trading ranges.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.37 which is the low from December 5th. Resistance is at $4.50 1/2 which is an old support/resistance line.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.34 1/2 which is the low from May 19th. Resistance comes in at $4.48 1/4 which is 200-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $10.11 1/4 which is the low from March 26th. Resistance is at $10.47 which is the 200-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.17 which is an old support/resistance line. Resistance is at $10.33 1/2 which is the 200-day moving-day average.
July Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.23 which is the low from May 27th. Resistance comes in at $5.47 3/4 which is the high from May 21st.
Where do we go from Here:
July futures continue to show strength early in the trading session but have a tendency to fail by the close. The July/December corn spread lost ground again yesterday. Bigger than expected South American corn crop and potential slowing down of U.S. corn exports later this summer are the main reason for the July/December corn spread collapse. Weekly export sales this week should give us another strong number, increasing the odd the USDA will need to increase their annual export projection for this marketing year. There is some talk about corn exports for next marketing year being a bit lower than expected mainly because South America will have a large corn supply. Look for December corn to continue to add some weather premium back into the marketplace here and push up towards $4.50 before we find a little resistance.
Soybean futures continue to trend sideways. July futures seem content to trade between $10.30 and $10.80 with November soybean futures content on trading between $10.15 and $10.50. A close above $10.50 on the July contract would be positive and we could see a test of the recent high of $10.82. Demand for U.S. soybeans remains slow but that is normal for this time of year. The market is simply waiting until we get closer to August to see the extended weather forecasts.
Kansas City July futures still need to close above $5.47 for me to confirm we have head and shoulder low in place. Funds continue to hold a near record short position in wheat. The crop in the U.S. looks to be as advertised if not bigger. Rains in the southern wheat plains going forward will be more of a nuisance than anything and could hurt the quality. I feel wheat has scored a significant low but with harvest upon us in the south, it will be hard to rally for the next couple weeks.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
June 9, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
June 12, 2025 – USDA Crop Production
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