June 4, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are up 2-3c,
🍞wheat is up 1-2c,
🛢️crude oil is up 22-23c,
💲US Dollar is down 3-4 points.
-Ukraine’s ag minister said in an interview with Reuters that his county’s 2025 overall grain harvest may decline by 10% to 51 mmt, with corn accounting for 26 mmt of that.
-Good rains across much of Iowa yesterday should help increase crop ratings.
-By mid-June, forecast models are calling for a warmer/drier trend for the upper plains of the Dakotas and western Minnesota and Iowa.
-The July/December corn spread continues to weaken. This is a result of a larger than expected South American corn crop and South America getting more competitive for shipment later this summer.
-December corn seems to have good support at $4.34-$4.35 level, however with weather looking good, rallies will be limited without any fresh news.
🐂🐻Look for a steady to higher trade for today.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.37 which is the low from December 5th. Resistance is at $4.50 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.34 1/2 which is the low from May 19th. Resistance comes in at $4.42 3/4 which is 20-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $10.11 1/4 which is the low from March 26th. Resistance is at $10.47 which is the 200-day moving average.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.17 which is an old support/resistance line. Resistance is at $10.33 1/2 which is the 200-day moving-day average.
July Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.23 which is the low from May 27th. Resistance comes in at $5.47 3/4 which is the high from May 21st.
Where do we go from Here:
Not much new in the corn market today. December corn futures seem to be putting a little “risk premium” back into the market. Overall, the weather looks really good. There is a warmer and drier pattern setting up for the Dakotas, Nebraska, western Minnesota and western Iowa but the key to that will be how long will it last and how hot do we get? Demand is still good but there are a few signs of export demand from the U.S. slowing down a touch. Demand is still very good and likely see the USDA increase exports in the next crop production report but later this summer, South America is very competitive. Look for December corn to trade between $4.34 and $4.50 in the near term.
July soybeans continue to hold a premium over the November contract. There is a little talk of the U.S. picking up some soybean export business later this summer as South America will shift over and start to export corn. The late summer demand will not be that big, but any business is good. We still have 13+ million acres of soybeans to plant in the U.S. and with the wet forecast this week, one has to wonder if all those acres get planted or enrolled into PP. I look for November soybeans to trade between $10.15 and $10.40 in the near term.
The wheat market was choppy yesterday. Winter wheat got a little support with the tensions between Ukraine and Russia escalating but spring wheat stayed under pressure with those crop ratings improving 5% in the good/excellent category with thoughts we see another increase in ratings next Monday. July Kansas City wheat continues to work on confirming a head and shoulders low. A close above $5.47 would confirm that pattern. Look for wheat to be quiet today and a follower of corn and soybeans.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
June 9, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
June 12, 2025 – USDA Crop Production
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