June 2, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are down 7-8c,
🍞wheat is up 3-5c,
🛢️crude oil is up $2.28-$2.29,
💲US Dollar is down 53-54 points.
-Tensions between Russia and Ukraine are rising. Crude oil is up $2+.
-Soybean crop condition ratings should be released out today. Look for a number similar to corn at 68% good/excellent.
-Weather forecast for the next 7 days are calling for some big rains for the southern plains with the rest of the corn belt looking to get a decent shot of rain.
-Look for corn conditions to be a little better this week as dry weather for the Dakotas should improve their corn crop.
-Funds were net buyers of corn, soybeans and wheat in last Friday’s COT report.
🐂🐻Look for a choppy/mixed start to the week and a new month.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.43 which is an old support/resistance line. Resistance is at $4.62 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.34 1/2 which is the low from May 19th. Resistance comes in at $4.48 1/4 which is 200-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $10.36 1/2 which is a double-bottom from early May. Resistance is at $10.81 3/4 which is the high from February 21st.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.17 which is an old support/resistance line. Resistance is at $10.65 1/2 which is the high from May 14th.
July Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.24 1/2 which is the low from May 27th. Resistance comes in at $5.47 3/4 which is the high from May 21st.
Where do we go from Here:
Funds continue to hold a short position of over 100,000 contracts short. The weather looks to bring some moisture for the corn-belt with heavy rains projected for the southern wheat plains and over into the deep south. I look for corn crop ratings to increase this week as dry weather across the western corn belt allowed the crop to advance without much issue. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine don’t seem to be affecting the grain prices much at this point. It is all about weather and that looks pretty good right now. Look for July corn to trade between $4.40-$4.50.
Funds are holding a long position of just under 37,000 contracts long. We will get our first crop ratings for soybeans out this afternoon. Look for the first rating to come in close to where corn ratings come in last week at 68% good/excellent. A drier weather forecast the past 7 days should have allowed for soybean planting to push forward and get closer to 100% complete. July soybeans are testing support at $10.36 1/2 here this morning. Look for July soybeans to continue to trade in a $10.35-$10.80 range.
Wheat futures are getting a little support here this morning. Combination of forecasted big rains for the southern wheat plains along with tensions between Russia and Ukraine increasing. Funds continue to hold huge, short positions in all 3 wheat complexes. With Kansas City July wheat pushing higher here this morning, it is getting closer to confirming a head and shoulders low is in place. I am looking for a close above $5.46 3/4 on the July contract to confirm this low is in place.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
June 2, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
June 9, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
Are you new here? Click here to subscribe and receive the newsletter in your inbox.
We’re here to help. Call any of our hedging strategists at 844-4AG-MRKT.
