May 29, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are up 1-2c,
🍞wheat is down 0-1c,
🛢️crude oil is up 88-89c,
💲US Dollar is up 9-10 points.
-Federal court rules that President Trump exceeded his authority to impose tariffs.
-South America is getting more competitive on corn especially for shipments later this summer.
-Weather seems to be the biggest driver here. Forecast through the first week of June look to bring warmer temps and drier conditions across much of the U.S. allowing the crop conditions to improve.
-Stock market is pushing higher.
-July soybeans held support at the 200-day moving average and July corn futures are pushing below support at $4.50.
🐂🐻Look for a mixed and choppy trade today.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.50 1/2 which is an old support/resistance line. Resistance is at $4.64 3/4 which is the high from May 22nd.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.36 1/2 which is an old support/resistance line. Resistance comes in at $4.56 1/2 which is the high from May 22, 2025.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $10.46 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.81 3/4 which is the high from February 21st.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.33 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.65 1/2 which is the high from May 14th.
July Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.27 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.46 3/4 which is the high from May 5th.
Where do we go from Here:
Right now, it is all about weather. Strong demand for U.S. corn and lower than expected crop condition ratings does not hold up against a forecast that should allow for crop conditions to improve and wrap up planting across the U.S. July corn futures are breaking down below support at $4.50 and could be on their way to test support at $4.36 1/2. Spreads are weakening but basis levels are firming up. Needless to say, this has been a tough market to try and figure out lately. Without any new major changes, the path of least resistance of corn is lower.
Soybeans continue to hold up above the 200-day moving average. There is some chatter about some of the remaining corn acres that need to get planted might get shifted over to soybeans. Until we get any trade deal details or a change in weather, soybeans look to continue to grind sideways. Demand is what it is, slow for this time of year but we are still selling a few beans out of the U.S. The market is also waiting to see if President Trump “Big Beautiful Bill” passes the Senate and what it will have in store for biofuels.
Spring wheat ratings at the 2nd lowest crop rating in last 40 years is a surprise to the market. However, the crop is very young and the recent weather in the Dakotas should allow spring wheat ratings to greatly improve. The U.S. wheat is still some of the cheapest wheat in the World as we continue to see a little demand pick up. Issue with wheat is the U.S. can get un-competitive real fast in the World market.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
June 2, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
June 9, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
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