May 28, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are down 1-2c,
🍞wheat is up 6-7c,
🛢️crude oil is up 48-49c,
💲US Dollar is up 1-2 points.
-Corn and soybean planting slowed a bit but still progressed well. We are still ahead of the 5-year average planting pace.
-We saw the first corn conditions rating for the year, and it come in at 68% good/excellent vs 75% expected. The States of Ohio, North Dakota and South Dakota were pulling the ratings lower than expected.
-Winter wheat ratings slipped 2% out of the good/excellent category this week. Traders were expecting rating to stay unchanged.
-Weekly export inspections for corn were solid again this week along with wheat having another very good week. Soybean export inspections were a bit disappointing.
-Weather looks to improve this week allowing for corn conditions to improve.
-Next week we should get our first look at soybean condition ratings.
🐂🐻Look for a mixed day of trade today.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.50 1/2 which is an old support/resistance line. Resistance is at $4.64 3/4 which is the high from May 22nd.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.44 3/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.56 1/2 which is the high from May 22, 2025.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $10.46 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.81 3/4 which is the high from February 21st.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.33 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.65 1/2 which is the high from May 14th.
July Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.28 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.46 3/4 which is the high from May 5th.
Where do we go from Here:
The condition ratings for corn come in this week a little lower than expected. The States of Ohio, North Dakota and South Dakota were the laggards. Weather this week should help improve the condition at least in the Dakotas. Ohio is still close to 20% behind on planting pace as well. July corn futures look to continue to trend sideways between $4.50 and $4.65. December corn futures are looking to rebound after a 3-day selloff. We held support at $4.44 3/4 yesterday which is the 20-day moving average. With the funds holding a short position in corn and improving weather, rallies this week look to be limited.
Soybean planting progress come in at 76% completes, a little less than what traders were expecting. Emergence in soybeans is at 50% so next week I think we should get our first crop condition rating on soybeans on the year. Wet and cool conditions have a few farmers concerned about some re-planting in areas of the U.S. There is some concern in Argentina on flooding and affecting 750,000 hectares. Soybean futures continue to hold above the major moving averages and Funds are holing a very small, long position in soybeans.
Winter wheat rating slipped 2% points this week. However, some very beneficial rains hit over the weekend and early this week so we should see conditions stabilize or improve next week. Export inspection this week were impressive for wheat. Combination of the low prices and the U.S. dollar under 100 is making U.S. wheat competitive. In the Kansas City July wheat futures, we could be working in setting up an inverted head and shoulder low here this week.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
June 2, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
June 9, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
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