May 27, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 2-4c,
🌱soybeans are up 2-3c,
🍞wheat is down 9-10c,
🛢️crude oil is up 15-16c,
💲US Dollar is up 24-25 points.
-Good rains for Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma are putting pressure on the wheat market here this morning.
-In the COT report from Friday, they show the Funds continuing to add to their short corn positions and are now 103,000+ contracts short. In soybeans, the Funds are holding on to a small, long position of about 12,000+ contracts long and in wheat the Funds are still holding a huge, short position.
-Weather looks to dry out this week with some light chances of moisture across the corn belt. Then this upcoming weekend into next week there is good rains headed for the western corn belt.
-The drier forecast this week should allow the corn and soybeans to get wrapped up planting. This afternoon should see corn 90% planted and soybeans 80-81% planted.
-We will get our first crop rating today on corn. Traders are expecting 75% in the “good/excellent” category.
-The western corn belt has a lot of rough looking corn today, but some warmer weather should help that along this week.
🐂🐻Look for a lower trade in wheat and corn today as good rains hit the southern winter wheat areas.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.50 1/2 which is an old support/resistance line. Resistance is at $4.64 3/4 which is the high from May 22nd.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.48 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.59 3/4 which is the high from October 2, 2024.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $10.46 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.81 3/4 which is the high from February 21st.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.33 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.65 1/2 which is the high from May 14th.
July Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.28 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.46 3/4 which is the high from May 5th.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn futures are following the wheat market here this morning. Weather across much of the corn belt does not look threatening this week and actually should bring some much needed warmer and drier conditions to the western corn belt to help crop emergence. The first week of June looks to bring some rains to Nebraska, the Dakotas, Minnesota and Iowa with some lighter amounts to Illinois and Indiana. If these rains materialize after a week of drier conditions, the corn in the western corn belt should be sitting in a very good condition. The Funds continue to add to their short position in corn, and this will keep a lid on corn prices in the short term. It will take a major shift in the weather or trade deal details to push prices a lot higher.
Soybean prices are a little higher here today. We continue to see very wet conditions in the deep south as farmers down there and in the eastern corn belt look to try and finish up their soybean planting. The cool weather over the past 7-10 days is raising some concern on the soybean crop condition. There is some talk of beans getting froze and some seed rotting in the ground in the western part of the U.S. The weather looks to benefit those crops this week and we should have a good idea of any re-plant by late this week.
Good rains sweeping across the dry areas of Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma will really benefit the winter wheat crop. The Funds are now holding a record short position in Minneapolis wheat futures and still holding a near record short position in the Kansas City wheat futures. The Funds remain relentless in the wheat complex and any rally is short lived. The weather over the next 2 weeks does look to benefit the U.S. wheat crop. Crop ratings should remain steady this week with potentially improving next week.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
May 27, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
June 2, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
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