May 23, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 0-1c,
🍞wheat is down 1-4c,
🛢️crude oil is down 3-5c,
💲US Dollar is down 59-60 points.
-Very quiet overnight trade as trader head into a 3-day weekend.
-July corn futures are fighting with the 200-day moving average and resistance at an old uptrend line we have had since the contract low.
-Weekly export sales were decent on corn, at the low end of expectations for soybeans and above expectations on wheat because of a strong week of new crop sales.
-Weather in the U.S. looks to warm up and dry on here in the 7-day forecast. This will allow the crop to get off to a great start.
-There will be no grain markets Sunday night or Monday day. Trade will resume at 7:00 pm CT Monday night.
🐂🐻Look for a choppy trade today as we head into the 3-day weekend.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.50 1/2 which is an old support/resistance line. Resistance is at $4.64 3/4 which is the high from May 22nd.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.48 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.59 3/4 which is the high from October 2, 2024.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $10.46 3/4 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.81 3/4 which is the high from February 21st.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.33 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.65 1/2 which is the high from May 14th.
July Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.28 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.46 3/4 which is the high from May 5th.
Where do we go from Here:
July corn futures should finish out the week higher. Currently July corn is about 18c higher on the week and should close above last week highs. Funds are reported to still be holding a small short position heading into the 3-day weekend. The weather does look to improve and push crop progress along. With July corn futures trading back above $4.60, it feels like they could settle in and trend sideways between $4.60 to $4.80. As we head into next week, the focus will shift to weather, and also will the wet areas of the U.S. corn belt get those acres planted? Or will they get switched over to soybeans?
The rumors about increasing SREs was just that, a rumor. Soybean futures continue to trade above the major moving averages. Demand for U.S. soybeans remain typical for this time of year. Overall, there is just not a lot of fresh news to trade on for soybeans. July soybean futures feel content to trend sideways between $10.40 to $10.80.
Strong new crop export sales for wheat gave the wheat futures a little bounce yesterday but could not hold the strength into the close. Wheat futures are just looking for a pullback after a nice run up. Kansas City wheat futures continue to hold above support and this pullback is just a correction. There is some moisture forecasted for Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas next week. Crop ratings should hold steady next week.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
May 23, 2025 – Cattle on Feed
May 27, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
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