May 22, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 2-3c,
🌱soybeans are down 7-8c,
🍞wheat is down 6-8c,
🛢️crude oil is down 95-96c,
💲US Dollar is up 25-26 points.
-Potential rumors of lower RVOs had soybean oil gapping lower to start the overnight session and spilling over into the other grain markets.
-Weather for most of the corn belt looks to dry out in the 7-day forecast. The next system that comes out of the Rockies looks to push south and bring some good rains to parts of Kansas, Oklahoma and east Texas.
-Soybean futures continue to hold above the major moving averages.
-July corn futures are finding some resistance at the 200-day moving average with December corn futures trading between the 100-day and 200-day moving average.
-Weekly export sales will be out this morning. Here are the estimates: corn 750,000-2,100,000 metric tons, soybean 200,000-700,000 metric tons, wheat 100,000-800,000 metric tons and soybean meal 100,000-400,000 metric tons.
🐂🐻Look for a lower trade today.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.50 1/2 which is an old support/resistance line. Resistance is at $4.61 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.48 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.59 3/4 which is the high from October 2, 2024.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $10.46 3/4 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.81 3/4 which is the high from February 21st.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.33 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.65 1/2 which is the high from May 14th.
July Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.30 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.46 3/4 which is the high from May 5th.
Where do we go from Here:
July corn futures are running into some resistance at the 200-day moving average. Weather looks to dry out a bit and start to warm up in the extended weather maps. The corn market is stuck between an early start to the growing season, but U.S. and World carryout stocks are tight, so the U.S. does need to produce a large crop. We have the entire growing season ahead of us with little room for error. Demand for U.S. corn continues to run well ahead the USDA projection as well.
Potential rumors of lower RVOs might be announced soon. We have heard this story before, so it amazes me that the market gets so sensitive to these rumors. Maybe we will finally get an announcement and maybe we will have to wait a few more weeks. Soybean futures continue to be supported and are trading above the major moving averages. World soybean stocks are plentiful; however, the U.S. carryout stocks are a bit on the tight side. Potential lower soybean acres this planting season could cause the domestic supply in the U.S. to get really tight.
July Kansas City wheat futures ran into resistance around $5.47 yesterday before backing off. After a 47c rally, Kansas City wheat is over bought in here and due for a correction. I am hearing of some crop production issues with the Russian wheat crop adding support to prices. The U.S. Dollar is still trading below 100 allowing the U.S. wheat to be competitive in the World market.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
May 23, 2025 – Cattle on Feed
May 26, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
Are you new here? Click here to subscribe and receive the newsletter in your inbox.
We’re here to help. Call any of our hedging strategists at 844-4AG-MRKT.
