May 21, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are up 5-6c,
🍞wheat is up 2-3c,
🛢️crude oil is up 83-84c,
💲US Dollar is down 46-47 points.
-The U.S. Dollar is lower today and back below 100 lending support to the grain prices this morning.
-China continues to source their soybeans from China, but year over year imports, into China, are down. As of today, we have no new crop soybean sales on the books to China.
-Trade talks between the U.S. and countries like China, India, and Japan have been relatively quiet lately.
-Crop progress is slowing down a bit this week with rain and cool temps sweeping across the U.S. We have a few problem areas that are struggling to get the crop planted like southern IL. Majority of the U.S. has the crop planted and good moisture.
-Grian prices continue to add a little risk premium back into the marketplace as we have the entire summer weather to get through yet.
🐂🐻Look for another quiet, small trading range trade today.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.36 1/2 which is the low from May 13th. Resistance is at $4.61 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.34 1/2 which is the May 16th low. Resistance comes in at $4.48 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $10.46 3/4 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.81 3/4 which is the high from February 21st.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.33 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.65 1/2 which is the high from May 14th.
July Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.00 1/4 which is the contract low. Resistance comes in at $5.46 3/4 which is the high from May 5th.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn futures continue to add a little risk premium back into the marketplace. Basis levels continue to run steady to firmer as the farmer is not interested in selling any old crop corn at these levels. The old crop/new crop corn spread continues to get a bit softer. July corn futures are trading back above $4.50. There is an area of consolidated trade on July futures between $4.60 and $4.80. This could be a target area for July corn to get back to.
Soybean futures are a bit firmer here today. Not a lot of fresh new news to trade on. It is early in the growing season, and we are off to a pretty start. However, we need to produce a big crop in the U.S. to keep carryout supplies from getting dangerously low so until we know what the weather in August will be, it is hard for soybean prices to get too cheap. July soybeans continue to remain in a trading range between $10.40 and $10.80.
The U.S. has some of the cheapest wheat in the World. The Funds are or were holding a record short position in Kansas City wheat futures. Until we get closer to harvest, it is hard for the Kansas City wheat futures to trade below $5.00. Rallies will be limited but it looks like July Kansas City wheat could settle in and trade between $5.25 and $5.45.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
May 23, 2025 – Cattle on Feed
May 26, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
Are you new here? Click here to subscribe and receive the newsletter in your inbox.
We’re here to help. Call any of our hedging strategists at 844-4AG-MRKT.
