May 20, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 3-4c,
🌱soybeans are up 1-2c,
🍞wheat is up 7-10c,
🛢️crude oil is down 18-19c,
💲US Dollar is down 19-20 points.
-Corn planting in the U.S. come in at 78% planted and soybeans are 66% planted.
-Weekly export inspections were very strong on corn coming in at 1.719 mmt. Soybean export inspections trended lower again coming in at 217.8 tmt.
-Crop ratings for the winter wheat crop slipped 2% out of the good/excellent category. Cold weather could affect the spring wheat crop as the Dakotas are flirting with freezing temps and possible snow.
-Weather looks to bring good rains across much of the corn belt this week but temps will be on the cooler side slowing emergence.
-Soybeans continue to hold support above the 200-day moving average.
🐂🐻Look for a choppy trade here today.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.36 1/2 which is the low from May 13th. Resistance is at $4.61 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.34 1/2 which is the May 16th low. Resistance comes in at $4.48 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $10.47 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.81 3/4 which is the high from February 21st.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.33 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.65 1/2 which is the high from May 14th.
July Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.00 1/4 which is the contract low. Resistance comes in at $5.30 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
The corn crop is 78% planted in the U.S. Weather for the corn belt is bringing rains to some of the driest areas this week. The only issue with the weather is cooler than normal temps will slow emergence. Weekly corn export inspections were above expectations this week as demand continues to stay robust. Corn is caught between a good start to the 2025 crop and strong demand. Look for corn to grind sideways.
Soybeans are 66% planted in the U.S. The House Budget Committee passed a budget reconciliation over the weekend that included proposed changes to 45Z, aiming to limit biofuel feedstock usage to those originated in U.S., Canada and Mexico. Demand for U.S. soybeans continues to slow down which is to be expected this time of year. Trade negotiations continue to move forward with countries like India, Japan and EU with hopes that trade barriers can be reduced. Much like corn, I look for soybeans to trend sideways looking for some fresh news to trade on.
Winter wheat ratings lost 2% in the good/excellent category with Texas and Colorado taking the biggest hit. Potential frost and snow in the Upper Midwest also provided support to the wheat market. Weather forecasts are looking to bring some good rains to Texas and Oklahoma later this week. Most feel Kansas City wheat futures scored an important low last week and are likely headed sideways, building a basing pattern.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
May 23, 2025 – Cattle on Feed
May 26, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
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