May 16, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are up 1-2c,
🍞wheat is down 3-4c,
🛢️crude oil is down 3-5c,
💲US Dollar is down 10-11 points.
-Soybeans are stabilizing today after being down 25+ cents yesterday. Rumors are the EPA sent a letter to the White House proposing RVO mandates be at 4.65 billion gallons after talks a couple months ago they could be as high as 5.25 billion gallons.
-Weekly export sales were really good especially on corn again. Also, we saw a good amount of new crop bushiness done for corn, soybeans and wheat.
-Widespread rains of 1-2 inches across the Dakotas yesterday and today so far are improving their soil conditions.
-Weekly planting progress on Monday could put corn close to 80% planted and soybeans could be close to 70% planted as well and it is only May 19th.
🐂🐻Look for a choppy day of trade as we wrap up another week of trading.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.36 1/2 which is the low from May 13th. Resistance is at $4.61 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.35 3/4 which is the May 8th low. Resistance comes in at $4.48 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $10.47 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.81 3/4 which is the high from February 21st.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.34 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.64 1/2 which is the high from February 21st.
July Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.00 1/4 which is the contract low. Resistance comes in at $5.34 1/4 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
July corn futures are back flirting with the $4.50 level again here today. Despite soybeans being under a lot of pressure yesterday, corn did manage to rebound and close higher on the day. Demand for U.S. corn is still very strong. We only need to sell 2-3 million bushels of corn each week for the rest of the marketing year to achieve the USDA projection of 2.6 billion bushels. Odds do suggest that the USDA will need to increase exports at least 50 million bushels and maybe more in future reports. Spreads are firming up again and basis levels are starting to firm up across the U.S. This suggests to me that we could see July corn futures be well supported and maybe push back to the $4.60-$4.70 area.
Soybean futures are stabilizing here today after the 25+ cent selloff yesterday lead by soybean oil down limit of $3.00. July futures continue to hold above the 200-day moving average and heading into a weekend I feel is good for the market. After the limit down move in soybean oil yesterday, having a couple days off will allow traders to stop and re-evaluate the soybean situation and come back Monday with a clear mind. Getting caught up in trading these headlines can get dangerous and soybean oil proved that yesterday.
Kansas City wheat futures are taking a little breather here today after a good week of trading. July Kansas City wheat futures are holding above the $5.25 level which I feel is an important level. Holding above the $5.25 level suggests to me they could be moving into a trading range between $5.25 to $5.45. The wheat tour continues to find better than expected yields, but I think the market has all that already priced in. The U.S. balance sheet for wheat does not look the best with carryout stocks surging to a 923-million-bushels.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
May 19, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
May 23, 2025 – Cattle on Feed
Are you new here? Click here to subscribe and receive the newsletter in your inbox.
We’re here to help. Call any of our hedging strategists at 844-4AG-MRKT.
