May 15, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are down 13-14c,
🍞wheat is up 0-1c,
🛢️crude oil is down $2.37-$2.38,
💲US Dollar is down 24-25 points.
-EPA Administrator Zeldin confirmed they will over the “next few months” be completing a rulemaking process to set new Renewable Fuel Standard renewable volume obligations (RBOs).
-Soybean complex was hoping to see an announcement from the EPA yet this month and now it looks like we may not get one for a few months.
-Basis levels continue to firm on both corn and soybeans across much of the U.S.
-Some much-needed moisture is stretching across the Dakotas here the next 2 days.
-Day 2 of the Wheat Quality Council Hard Winter Wheat tour concluded. After 2 days their yield estimate is running at 52.0 bushels per acre vs 45.8 bushels per acre last year.
-Weekly export sales will be out at 7:30 am CT here this morning.
🐂🐻Look for a lower start to the day but I could see the markets stabilizing by the end of the day.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.36 1/2 which is the low from May 13th. Resistance is at $4.61 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.35 3/4 which is the May 8th low. Resistance comes in at $4.48 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $10.47 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.81 3/4 which is the high from February 21st.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.34 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.64 1/2 which is the high from February 21st.
July Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.00 1/4 which is the contract low. Resistance comes in at $5.36 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
July corn futures seem to be stabilizing in here. The big hurdle will be to trade and close above $4.50 on July futures. Demand continues to be very strong with many thinking we will see the USDA increase exports again in future Crop Production reports. The corn crop in the U.S. for the most part is all but planted and it is only May 15th. The dry areas of the Dakotas are getting some beneficial rains here the next 2 days. Overall, we have thrown a lot of bearish news at the corn market, and I feel we don’t have any risk premium built into the new crop so for corn to stabilize in here and trend sideways, I feel this is healthy for the corn market.
The soybean futures are under a little pressure here this morning after the EPA confirmed they will be taking a “few months” to roll out the new Renewable Fuel Standard RVOs (renewable volume obligation) when many traders thought we were very close to getting an announcement. Soybean futures have had a nice run up lately and we ran into some resistance at $10.65 July futures. This feels like more of a slight correction to me as we will still get an announcement from the EPA, but it will just be delayed. As long as we can hold July soybean futures above the 200-day moving average, the soybean market should still be well supported.
The Wheat Quality Council Hard Winter Wheat tour is happening, and they are suggesting we could have a bigger crop than last year. I wonder if some of this was already factored into the wheat market because since hitting $5.00 1/4 on July Kansas City wheat futures, we have seen futures rally 27c. The U.S. Dollar back over 100 does not help the U.S. be competitive. Global stocks are still tight, but the U.S. is looking at a pretty good crop so far this marketing year.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
May 19, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
May 23, 2025 – Cattle on Feed
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