May 14, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are up 1-3c,
🍞wheat is down 0-1c,
🛢️crude oil is down 73-74c,
💲US Dollar is down 63-64 points.
-China has opened up its market to Brazilian DDG’s. Brazil expects their DDG production to reach 5 million tons in 2025/26.
-Corn futures held support at $4.36 1/2 on July futures yesterday as we saw some massive selling yesterday. Some speculation on the market selloff was OTC contracts hitting knockout levels causing a bunch of “stops” to get hit in the market.
-The U.S. Stock market is back to the “pre-tariff” levels as traders look to decide if they want to invest back into stocks or commodities.
-July soybean futures look to close above the 200-day moving average for the 4th consecutive day.
-Weather is a mixed bag. Planting progress should continue across much of the U.S. The dry areas of the Dakotas look to get some relief later this week into the weekend.
-July Kansas City wheat made a new contract low at $5.00 1/4 before turning back higher.
🐂🐻Look for a choppy trade today but if the market can hold support, we could see some buying surface.
Support/Resistance:
July corn – Support on July corn is at $4.36 1/2 which is the low from May 13th. Resistance is at $4.61 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.35 3/4 which is the May 8th low. Resistance comes in at $4.48 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support comes in at $10.47 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.81 3/4 which is the high from February 21st.
November soybeans – Support is at $10.34 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.64 1/2 which is the high from February 21st.
July Kansas City wheat – Initial support is at $5.00 1/4 which is the contract low. Resistance comes in at $5.38 which is the 20-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn futures saw some massive selling yesterday. There is some speculation the selloff was generated buy some of the “knockout” prices on some OTC contracts getting hit causing some sell stops to get hit. After being down 11c on the day, July corn futures did stabilize and close well off their lows. Overall, I look for corn futures to stabilize here and move a little higher. We have very little if any risk premium built into this corn market and it is only Mat 14th. Ending stocks in the U.S. and World will get really tight if we do not produce a 15.8+ billion corn crop.
Soybean futures yesterday shrugged off weakness early on from the corn market and closed out the day higher. Soybeans here feel like a sleeper in that we could see more upside. Carryout levels are good across the World, however in the U.S., a simple 1-2 bushel per acre draw down in yields could cause some problems domestically. It is way too early in the season to selloff soybeans due to a large crop coming. July soybeans are testing resistance here this morning. If we can close above $10.82 on the July contract, the next area of resistance is at 11.04 3/4.
Did wheat finally put in a low at $5.00 1/4 on the Kansas City July futures? Time will tell but the action yesterday was encouraging. Day 1 of the Wheat Quality Council Wheat Tour kicked off yesterday. Their results found an average yield of 50.5 bushels per acre vs 49.9 bushels per acre last year on Day 1. We will get more results today from the Wheat Tour. Crop conditions still look to improve into next week and that should keep a lid on Kansas City wheat futures. A close above $5.25 July futures today would signal to me a low is in the July Kansas City wheat futures.
Upcoming USDA Reports:
May 19, 2025 – Weekly Crop Progress
May 23, 2025 – Cattle on Feed
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